Prediction of annual tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journal

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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1011-1019
Journal / PublicationInternational Journal of Climatology
Volume15
Issue number9
Publication statusPublished - 1995

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between the spatial distribution of sea-surface temperature (SST) and the annual tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Monthly distributions of SST are represented by a set of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). The prinicpal components (PCs) of the monthly SST associated with these EOFs are then correlated statistically with the annual number of TCs occurring over (i) the western North Pacific, and (ii) the South China Sea using a forward stepwise linear multiple regression scheme. It is found that four PCs of the monthly SST distribution together explain 89% of the total variance of the anual number of TCs over the western North Pacific. -from Author