Predicting criteria continuous concentrations of metals or metalloids for protecting marine life by use of quantitative ion characteristic–activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD)

Marine pollution by metals has been a major challenge for ecological systems; however, water quality criteria (WQC) for metals in saltwater is still lacking. Especially from a regulatory perspective, chronic effects of metals on marine organisms should receive more attention. A quantitative ion characteristic–activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD) model, based on chronic toxicities for eight marine organisms, was established to predict the criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) of 21 metals. The results showed that the chronic toxicities of various metals had good relationships with their physicochemical properties. Predicted CCCs of six metals (Hg²⁺, Cu²⁺, Pb²⁺, Cd²⁺, Ni²⁺ and Zn²⁺) were in accordance with the values recommended by the U.S. EPA, with prediction errors being less than an order of magnitude. The QICAR-SSD approach provides an alternative tool to empirical methods and can be useful for deriving scientifically defensible WQC for metals for marine organisms and conducting ecological risk assessments.