POLITICAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON THE IMPROVED CATASTROPHE PROGRESSION METHOD

Junna Meng; Shangbing Jiao; Bin Xue; Cong Wang

POLITICAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON THE IMPROVED CATASTROPHE PROGRESSION METHOD

Junna Meng^*, Shangbing Jiao, Bin Xue^*, Cong Wang^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering

Research output: Chapters, Conference Papers, Creative and Literary Works › RGC 32 - Refereed conference paper (with host publication) › peer-review

Abstract

Political risk has a strong influence on the investment in infrastructure projects of Chinese enterprises in the countries along "The Belt and Road". It is necessary to make assessment and judgment on the political risk in the early stage of investment. This paper establishes an indicator system of political risk by referencing literature and the reports of consulting companies. Then the author applies the catastrophe progression method to quantitatively evaluate the political risk and optimizes the method by using the intuitionistic fuzzy set with IFWA operator and a new score function while ranking indicators according to importance. On the basis of the study above, more objective and effective political risk evaluation model is established. Finally, the author applies this model to Singapore and Malaysia and verified its effectiveness through calculating and comparing the results. This study contributes to proving reference for the investment decisions of Chinese enterprises.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management 2019 International Annual Conference
Publisher	American Society for Engineering Management
ISBN (Print)	9780997519563
Publication status	Published - Oct 2019
Event	2019 ASTM International Annual Conference : A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions - Philadelphia, United States Duration: 23 Oct 2019 → 26 Oct 2019

Publication series

Name	International Annual Conference Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration: A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM

Conference

Conference	2019 ASTM International Annual Conference
Place	United States
City	Philadelphia
Period	23/10/19 → 26/10/19

Bibliographical note

Full text of this publication does not contain sufficient affiliation information. With consent from the author(s) concerned, the Research Unit(s) information for this record is based on the existing academic department affiliation of the author(s).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 9 Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

Research Keywords

Catastrophe progression method
Infrastructure projects
Intuitionistic fuzzy sets
Political risk

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Meng, J., Jiao, S., Xue, B., & Wang, C. (2019). POLITICAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON THE IMPROVED CATASTROPHE PROGRESSION METHOD. In Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management 2019 International Annual Conference (International Annual Conference Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration: A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM ). American Society for Engineering Management.

Meng, Junna ; Jiao, Shangbing ; Xue, Bin et al. / POLITICAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON THE IMPROVED CATASTROPHE PROGRESSION METHOD. Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management 2019 International Annual Conference. American Society for Engineering Management, 2019. (International Annual Conference Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration: A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM ).

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abstract = "Political risk has a strong influence on the investment in infrastructure projects of Chinese enterprises in the countries along {"}The Belt and Road{"}. It is necessary to make assessment and judgment on the political risk in the early stage of investment. This paper establishes an indicator system of political risk by referencing literature and the reports of consulting companies. Then the author applies the catastrophe progression method to quantitatively evaluate the political risk and optimizes the method by using the intuitionistic fuzzy set with IFWA operator and a new score function while ranking indicators according to importance. On the basis of the study above, more objective and effective political risk evaluation model is established. Finally, the author applies this model to Singapore and Malaysia and verified its effectiveness through calculating and comparing the results. This study contributes to proving reference for the investment decisions of Chinese enterprises.",

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author = "Junna Meng and Shangbing Jiao and Bin Xue and Cong Wang",

note = "Full text of this publication does not contain sufficient affiliation information. With consent from the author(s) concerned, the Research Unit(s) information for this record is based on the existing academic department affiliation of the author(s).; 2019 ASTM International Annual Conference : A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions ; Conference date: 23-10-2019 Through 26-10-2019",

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Meng, J, Jiao, S, Xue, B & Wang, C 2019, POLITICAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON THE IMPROVED CATASTROPHE PROGRESSION METHOD. in Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management 2019 International Annual Conference. International Annual Conference Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration: A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM , American Society for Engineering Management, 2019 ASTM International Annual Conference , Philadelphia, United States, 23/10/19.

POLITICAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON THE IMPROVED CATASTROPHE PROGRESSION METHOD. / Meng, Junna; Jiao, Shangbing; Xue, Bin et al.
Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management 2019 International Annual Conference. American Society for Engineering Management, 2019. (International Annual Conference Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration: A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM ).

Research output: Chapters, Conference Papers, Creative and Literary Works › RGC 32 - Refereed conference paper (with host publication) › peer-review

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AU - Meng, Junna

AU - Jiao, Shangbing

AU - Xue, Bin

AU - Wang, Cong

N1 - Full text of this publication does not contain sufficient affiliation information. With consent from the author(s) concerned, the Research Unit(s) information for this record is based on the existing academic department affiliation of the author(s).

PY - 2019/10

Y1 - 2019/10

N2 - Political risk has a strong influence on the investment in infrastructure projects of Chinese enterprises in the countries along "The Belt and Road". It is necessary to make assessment and judgment on the political risk in the early stage of investment. This paper establishes an indicator system of political risk by referencing literature and the reports of consulting companies. Then the author applies the catastrophe progression method to quantitatively evaluate the political risk and optimizes the method by using the intuitionistic fuzzy set with IFWA operator and a new score function while ranking indicators according to importance. On the basis of the study above, more objective and effective political risk evaluation model is established. Finally, the author applies this model to Singapore and Malaysia and verified its effectiveness through calculating and comparing the results. This study contributes to proving reference for the investment decisions of Chinese enterprises.

AB - Political risk has a strong influence on the investment in infrastructure projects of Chinese enterprises in the countries along "The Belt and Road". It is necessary to make assessment and judgment on the political risk in the early stage of investment. This paper establishes an indicator system of political risk by referencing literature and the reports of consulting companies. Then the author applies the catastrophe progression method to quantitatively evaluate the political risk and optimizes the method by using the intuitionistic fuzzy set with IFWA operator and a new score function while ranking indicators according to importance. On the basis of the study above, more objective and effective political risk evaluation model is established. Finally, the author applies this model to Singapore and Malaysia and verified its effectiveness through calculating and comparing the results. This study contributes to proving reference for the investment decisions of Chinese enterprises.

KW - Catastrophe progression method

KW - Infrastructure projects

KW - Intuitionistic fuzzy sets

KW - Political risk

KW - Catastrophe progression method

KW - Infrastructure projects

KW - Intuitionistic fuzzy sets

KW - Political risk

KW - Catastrophe progression method

KW - Infrastructure projects

KW - Intuitionistic fuzzy sets

KW - Political risk

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M3 - RGC 32 - Refereed conference paper (with host publication)

SN - 9780997519563

T3 - International Annual Conference Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration: A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM

BT - Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management 2019 International Annual Conference

PB - American Society for Engineering Management

T2 - 2019 ASTM International Annual Conference

Y2 - 23 October 2019 through 26 October 2019

ER -

Meng J, Jiao S, Xue B, Wang C. POLITICAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON THE IMPROVED CATASTROPHE PROGRESSION METHOD. In Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management 2019 International Annual Conference. American Society for Engineering Management. 2019. (International Annual Conference Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration: A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM ).

POLITICAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON THE IMPROVED CATASTROPHE PROGRESSION METHOD

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Research Keywords

Other Access Options

Permanent Link

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