Past and future adverse response of terrestrial water storages to increased vegetation growth in drylands

The response of terrestrial water storages to dryland vegetation growth remains poorly understood. Using multiple proxies from satellite observations and model outputs, we show an overall increase (decrease) in vegetation growth (terrestrial water storages) across drylands globally during 1982–2016. Terrestrial water storages in greening drylands correlate negatively with vegetation growth, particularly for cropland-dominated regions, and such response is pronounced when the growth rate of vegetation productivity is high. Reduction in terrestrial water storage is dominated by precipitation and evapotranspiration variability rather by than runoff. We predict reduction in terrestrial water storage of 41–84% by 2100, accompanying expansion of drylands by 4.1–10.6%. Our findings, which indicate sustained adverse response of terrestrial water storage to vegetation growth in drylands, highlight the need for concerted planning for balanced ecological restoration, agricultural management, and water resource utilization that will affect 5.17 billion people, 64% of whom live in developing countries. © The Author(s) 2023