Neural Network based Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Weather Compensation

This paper presents a novel technique for electric load forecasting based on neural weather compensation. Our proposed method is a nonlinear generalization of Box and Jenkins approach for nonstationary time-series prediction. A weather compensation neural network is implemented for one-day ahead electric load forecasting. Our weather compensation neural network can accurately predict the change of actual electric load consumption from the previous day. The results, based on Hong Kong Island historical load demand, indicate that this methodology is capable of providing a more accurate load forecast with a 0.9% reduction in forecast error. Keywords - Short-term Load Forecasting, Weather Compensation Neural network, Nonlinear Autoregressive Integrated Model © 1996 IEEE.