Modelling the geographical spread of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China : a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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Author(s)

  • Yi Zhou
  • Zhongzhi Xu
  • Ying Lu
  • Xiaoyu Tao
  • Shujuan Yang
  • Junzhang Tian
  • Weiming Tang
  • Dan Wu

Related Research Unit(s)

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Article number20210126
Journal / PublicationPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Volume380
Issue number2214
Online published22 Nov 2021
Publication statusPublished - 10 Jan 2022

Link(s)

Abstract

Men who have sex with men (MSM) make up the majority of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses among young people in China. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics among the MSM population is, therefore, crucial for the control and prevention of HIV infections, especially for some newly reported genotypes of HIV. This study presents a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to investigate the geographical spread of a hypothetically new genotype of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China. We use multiple data sources to construct this model to characterize the behavioural dynamics underlying the spread of HIV within and between 21 prefecture-level cities (i.e. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, etc.) in Guangdong province: the online social network via a gay social networking app, the offline human mobility network via the Baidu mobility website, and self-reported sexual behaviours among MSM. Results show that PrEP initiation exponentially delays the occurrence of the virus for the rest of the cities transmitted from the initial outbreak city; hubs on the movement network, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan are at a higher risk of 'earliest' exposure to the new HIV genotype; most cities acquire the virus directly from the initial outbreak city while others acquire the virus from cities that are not initial outbreak locations and have relatively high betweenness centralities, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shantou. This study provides insights in predicting the geographical spread of a new genotype of HIV among an MSM population from different regions and assessing the importance of prefecture-level cities in the control and prevention of HIV in Guangdong province. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'.

Research Area(s)

  • HIV transmission, human mobility data, social media data, sexual behaviour data, MSM, TRANSMISSION, EPIDEMIC

Citation Format(s)

Modelling the geographical spread of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China: a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis. / Jing, Fengshi; Ye, Yang; Zhou, Yi et al.
In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 380, No. 2214, 20210126, 10.01.2022.

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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