Modelling the geographical spread of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China : a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis
Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review
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Detail(s)
Original language | English |
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Article number | 20210126 |
Journal / Publication | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
Volume | 380 |
Issue number | 2214 |
Online published | 22 Nov 2021 |
Publication status | Published - 10 Jan 2022 |
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DOI | DOI |
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Link to Scopus | https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85122319160&origin=recordpage |
Permanent Link | https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/publications/publication(50accf99-f0e1-4468-937f-a856f4b4fa85).html |
Abstract
Men who have sex with men (MSM) make up the majority of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses among young people in China. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics among the MSM population is, therefore, crucial for the control and prevention of HIV infections, especially for some newly reported genotypes of HIV. This study presents a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to investigate the geographical spread of a hypothetically new genotype of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China. We use multiple data sources to construct this model to characterize the behavioural dynamics underlying the spread of HIV within and between 21 prefecture-level cities (i.e. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, etc.) in Guangdong province: the online social network via a gay social networking app, the offline human mobility network via the Baidu mobility website, and self-reported sexual behaviours among MSM. Results show that PrEP initiation exponentially delays the occurrence of the virus for the rest of the cities transmitted from the initial outbreak city; hubs on the movement network, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan are at a higher risk of 'earliest' exposure to the new HIV genotype; most cities acquire the virus directly from the initial outbreak city while others acquire the virus from cities that are not initial outbreak locations and have relatively high betweenness centralities, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shantou. This study provides insights in predicting the geographical spread of a new genotype of HIV among an MSM population from different regions and assessing the importance of prefecture-level cities in the control and prevention of HIV in Guangdong province. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'.
Research Area(s)
- HIV transmission, human mobility data, social media data, sexual behaviour data, MSM, TRANSMISSION, EPIDEMIC
Citation Format(s)
Modelling the geographical spread of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China: a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis. / Jing, Fengshi; Ye, Yang; Zhou, Yi et al.
In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 380, No. 2214, 20210126, 10.01.2022.
In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 380, No. 2214, 20210126, 10.01.2022.
Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review
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