Modeling the spread dynamics of multiple-variant coronavirus disease under public health interventions: A general framework

The COVID-19 pandemic was caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is a single-stranded positive-stranded RNA virus with a high multi-directional mutation rate. Many new variants even have an immune-evading property, which means that some individuals with antibodies against one variant can be reinfected by other variants. As a result, the realistic is still suffering from new waves of COVID-19 by its new variants. How to control the transmission or even eradicate the COVID-19 pandemic remains a critical issue for the whole world. This work presents an epidemiological framework for mimicking the multi-directional mutation process of SARS-CoV-2 and the epidemic spread of COVID-19 under realistic scenarios considering multiple variants. The proposed framework is used to evaluate single and combined public health interventions, which include non-pharmaceutical interventions, pharmaceutical interventions, and vaccine interventions under the existence of multi-directional mutations of SARS-CoV-2. The results suggest that several combined intervention strategies give optimal results and are feasible, requiring only moderate levels of individual interventions. Furthermore, the results indicate that even if the mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 decreased 100 times, the pandemic would still not be eradicated without appropriate public health interventions. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.