Mapping burdens and inequalities of polycystic ovary syndrome in young females across 953 locations 1990–2040 with deep learning forecasts

60 authors, including; Yaling Wu; Wenxiang Cai; Mao Chen; Susu Luo; Baozhen Huang; Yihang Chu; Pengpeng Ye; Dongzi Yang; Shixuan Wang; Azeem Majeed; Helena Teede; Wenyi Jin; Queran Lin

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2026.115116

Mapping burdens and inequalities of polycystic ovary syndrome in young females across 953 locations 1990–2040 with deep learning forecasts

60 authors, including
, Yaling Wu (Co-first Author)
, Wenxiang Cai (Co-first Author)
, Mao Chen (Co-first Author)
, Susu Luo (Co-first Author)
, Baozhen Huang
, Yihang Chu
, Pengpeng Ye^*
, Dongzi Yang^*
, Shixuan Wang^*
, Azeem Majeed^*
, Helena Teede^*
, Wenyi Jin^*
, Queran Lin^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

2 Downloads (CityUHK Scholars)

Abstract

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common reproductive endocrine disorder impacting the health of young female populations. Using harmonized estimates from 953 locations, we assessed temporal trends, geographic inequalities, and forecasts of PCOS among individuals aged 10–24 years from 1990 to 2040. Between 1990 and 2021, global prevalence and disability burden increased by more than 30%, with the highest burden observed among those aged 20–24 years. Substantial geographic heterogeneity was identified, with particularly high prevalence in Europe and East Asia. While high-income regions carried the greatest absolute burden, low- and middle-income regions showed the fastest growth, accompanied by widening socio-economic inequalities. Forecasting analyses suggest that PCOS burden in young populations will continue to rise through 2040. These findings characterize the evolving global landscape of PCOS, providing evidence to support targeted public health surveillance and prevention strategies for adolescent and young adult populations. © 2026 The Author(s)

Original language	English
Article number	115116
Journal	iScience
Volume	29
Issue number	4
Online published	25 Feb 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.115116
Publication status	Published - 17 Apr 2026

Funding

We sincerely thank the global staff who collected and compiled the exceptional data for the GBD study. We also gratefully acknowledge the computational support provided by the National Supercomputer Centre in Guangzhou, which enabled us to train our iTransformer models.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 10 Reduced Inequalities

Research Keywords

health sciences
medicine
public health
reproductive medicine

Publisher's Copyright Statement

This full text is made available under CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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10.1016/j.isci.2026.115116

470244008.pdfFinal Published version, 8.21 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

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60 authors, including, Wu, Y., Cai, W., Chen, M., Luo, S., Huang, B., Chu, Y., Ye, P., Yang, D., Wang, S., Majeed, A., Teede, H., Jin, W., & Lin, Q. (2026). Mapping burdens and inequalities of polycystic ovary syndrome in young females across 953 locations 1990–2040 with deep learning forecasts. iScience, 29(4), Article 115116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.115116

@article{cab7c5a860b6460da60456290dbb7ff5,

title = "Mapping burdens and inequalities of polycystic ovary syndrome in young females across 953 locations 1990–2040 with deep learning forecasts",

abstract = "Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common reproductive endocrine disorder impacting the health of young female populations. Using harmonized estimates from 953 locations, we assessed temporal trends, geographic inequalities, and forecasts of PCOS among individuals aged 10–24 years from 1990 to 2040. Between 1990 and 2021, global prevalence and disability burden increased by more than 30\%, with the highest burden observed among those aged 20–24 years. Substantial geographic heterogeneity was identified, with particularly high prevalence in Europe and East Asia. While high-income regions carried the greatest absolute burden, low- and middle-income regions showed the fastest growth, accompanied by widening socio-economic inequalities. Forecasting analyses suggest that PCOS burden in young populations will continue to rise through 2040. These findings characterize the evolving global landscape of PCOS, providing evidence to support targeted public health surveillance and prevention strategies for adolescent and young adult populations. {\textcopyright} 2026 The Author(s)",

keywords = "health sciences, medicine, public health, reproductive medicine",

author = "\{60 authors, including\} and Yaling Wu and Wenxiang Cai and Mao Chen and Susu Luo and Norman, \{Robert J.\} and Khomami, \{Mahnaz Bahri\} and Lisa Moran and Heping Zhang and Samarasinghe, \{Suhaniya N.S.\} and Salman Rawaf and Ehrmann, \{Davd A.\} and Liming Pan and Kexin Ding and Shuxian Ma and Lili Zheng and Xian Shao and You Zuo and Fei Li and Mingyang Xue and Tongrui Shang and Guangyao Cai and Yuanyuan Chen and Ying Wang and Yutong Lu and Dong Wang and Yuanyuan Wan and Ningning Wu and Ciqing Lin and Wei Pan and Rui Zhang and Tingting Yao and Yiming Xiong and Kai Chen and Jianli Zhao and Shunrong Li and Liling Zhu and Luyuan Tan and Yinduo Zeng and You Zeng and Lukasz Szarpak and Hamdy, \{Nadia M.\} and Zhong, \{Claire Chenwen\} and Fa Yuan and Xiao Jia and Peng Wu and Linjiang Wei and Yanfang Ye and Jo{\~a}o Conde and Baozhen Huang and Yihang Chu and Pengpeng Ye and Dongzi Yang and Shixuan Wang and Azeem Majeed and Helena Teede and Wenyi Jin and Queran Lin",

year = "2026",

month = apr,

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doi = "10.1016/j.isci.2026.115116",

language = "English",

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}

Mapping burdens and inequalities of polycystic ovary syndrome in young females across 953 locations 1990–2040 with deep learning forecasts. / 60 authors, including; Wu, Yaling (Co-first Author); Cai, Wenxiang (Co-first Author) et al.
In: iScience, Vol. 29, No. 4, 115116, 17.04.2026.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mapping burdens and inequalities of polycystic ovary syndrome in young females across 953 locations 1990–2040 with deep learning forecasts

AU - 60 authors, including

AU - Wu, Yaling

AU - Cai, Wenxiang

AU - Chen, Mao

AU - Luo, Susu

AU - Norman, Robert J.

AU - Khomami, Mahnaz Bahri

AU - Moran, Lisa

AU - Zhang, Heping

AU - Samarasinghe, Suhaniya N.S.

AU - Rawaf, Salman

AU - Ehrmann, Davd A.

AU - Pan, Liming

AU - Ding, Kexin

AU - Ma, Shuxian

AU - Zheng, Lili

AU - Shao, Xian

AU - Zuo, You

AU - Li, Fei

AU - Xue, Mingyang

AU - Shang, Tongrui

AU - Cai, Guangyao

AU - Chen, Yuanyuan

AU - Wang, Ying

AU - Lu, Yutong

AU - Wang, Dong

AU - Wan, Yuanyuan

AU - Wu, Ningning

AU - Lin, Ciqing

AU - Pan, Wei

AU - Zhang, Rui

AU - Yao, Tingting

AU - Xiong, Yiming

AU - Chen, Kai

AU - Zhao, Jianli

AU - Li, Shunrong

AU - Zhu, Liling

AU - Tan, Luyuan

AU - Zeng, Yinduo

AU - Zeng, You

AU - Szarpak, Lukasz

AU - Hamdy, Nadia M.

AU - Zhong, Claire Chenwen

AU - Yuan, Fa

AU - Jia, Xiao

AU - Wu, Peng

AU - Wei, Linjiang

AU - Ye, Yanfang

AU - Conde, João

AU - Huang, Baozhen

AU - Chu, Yihang

AU - Ye, Pengpeng

AU - Yang, Dongzi

AU - Wang, Shixuan

AU - Majeed, Azeem

AU - Teede, Helena

AU - Jin, Wenyi

AU - Lin, Queran

PY - 2026/4/17

Y1 - 2026/4/17

N2 - Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common reproductive endocrine disorder impacting the health of young female populations. Using harmonized estimates from 953 locations, we assessed temporal trends, geographic inequalities, and forecasts of PCOS among individuals aged 10–24 years from 1990 to 2040. Between 1990 and 2021, global prevalence and disability burden increased by more than 30%, with the highest burden observed among those aged 20–24 years. Substantial geographic heterogeneity was identified, with particularly high prevalence in Europe and East Asia. While high-income regions carried the greatest absolute burden, low- and middle-income regions showed the fastest growth, accompanied by widening socio-economic inequalities. Forecasting analyses suggest that PCOS burden in young populations will continue to rise through 2040. These findings characterize the evolving global landscape of PCOS, providing evidence to support targeted public health surveillance and prevention strategies for adolescent and young adult populations. © 2026 The Author(s)

AB - Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common reproductive endocrine disorder impacting the health of young female populations. Using harmonized estimates from 953 locations, we assessed temporal trends, geographic inequalities, and forecasts of PCOS among individuals aged 10–24 years from 1990 to 2040. Between 1990 and 2021, global prevalence and disability burden increased by more than 30%, with the highest burden observed among those aged 20–24 years. Substantial geographic heterogeneity was identified, with particularly high prevalence in Europe and East Asia. While high-income regions carried the greatest absolute burden, low- and middle-income regions showed the fastest growth, accompanied by widening socio-economic inequalities. Forecasting analyses suggest that PCOS burden in young populations will continue to rise through 2040. These findings characterize the evolving global landscape of PCOS, providing evidence to support targeted public health surveillance and prevention strategies for adolescent and young adult populations. © 2026 The Author(s)

KW - health sciences

KW - medicine

KW - public health

KW - reproductive medicine

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105034666275

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/pubmetrics.uri?eid=2-s2.0-105034666275&origin=recordpage

U2 - 10.1016/j.isci.2026.115116

DO - 10.1016/j.isci.2026.115116

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

SN - 2589-0042

VL - 29

JO - iScience

JF - iScience

IS - 4

M1 - 115116

ER -

Mapping burdens and inequalities of polycystic ovary syndrome in young females across 953 locations 1990–2040 with deep learning forecasts

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Research Keywords

Publisher's Copyright Statement

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