Lunar eclipses, analyst sentiment, and earnings forecasts : Evidence from China

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1007-1024
Journal / PublicationInternational Review of Economics and Finance
Volume76
Online published15 Aug 2021
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2021

Abstract

This paper examines whether analysts affected by lunar eclipses issue more pessimistic earnings forecasts. After controlling for the characteristics of analysts, climates, and lunar phases, we find that analyst forecasts made after lunar eclipses are more pessimistic than consensus forecasts. This effect is more pronounced when a lunar eclipse is stronger. Further, we find that nighttime cloud coverage reduces analyst pessimism, while network attention, analyst superstition, natural disasters, and pollution increases pessimism after eclipses. Our paper provides new evidence that lunar eclipse-induced mood leads to pessimistic forecasts made by sell-side analysts.

Research Area(s)

  • Analyst sentiment, Forecast bias, Lunar eclipses