Landfalling tropical cyclones accelerate due to land–sea thermal and roughness contrasts

Quanjia Zhong; Johnny C. L. Chan; Wansuo Duan; Shifei Tu; Jianping Li; Jianping Gan; Ruiqiang Ding

doi:10.1038/s41561-025-01891-1

Landfalling tropical cyclones accelerate due to land–sea thermal and roughness contrasts

Quanjia Zhong
, Johnny C. L. Chan^*
, Wansuo Duan
, Shifei Tu
, Jianping Li
, Jianping Gan
, Ruiqiang Ding^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Energy and Environment

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

5 Downloads (CityUHK Scholars)

Abstract

Changes in the translation speed of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) pose great challenges in disaster preparedness. While some recent studies have discussed the increased chance of a reduction in the annual-mean translation speed of TCs after landfall, such changes before landfall have not been systematically investigated, especially for short-term variations (that is, hour-to-day timescales). Here we show, first based on observations, that globally, a TC about to make landfall tends to accelerate towards the coast, with an average acceleration of about 0.83 m s⁻¹ per day, which means that the mean translation speed of a landfalling TC increases by ~48% during the 60-h period before landfall. Such an acceleration exists irrespective of TC intensity, seasonality and ocean basin, although its magnitude varies. Numerical simulations demonstrate that land–sea differences in surface roughness and thermal effect result in asymmetric circulation and convection in TCs, both of which are enhanced as the TC moves closer to the coast, leading to local changes in potential vorticity and thereby accelerating the storm. As this phenomenon is due to the land–sea contrast, a TC approaching the coast will probably have such an acceleration and hence it is inherent. © The Author(s) 2026.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	159-164
Number of pages	19
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	19
Online published	27 Jan 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01891-1
Publication status	Published - Feb 2026

Funding

This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 42225501 (to R.D.), 42105059 (to Q.Z.) and 72293604 (to S.T.)), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (grant no. 2243300004 (R.D.)) and the Center for Ocean Research in Hong Kong and Macau (CORE). CORE is a joint ocean research centre between the Laoshan National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. We thank H. Yang and Y. Feng from L. Wu\u2019s group at Fudan University for their assistance in the PVT calculation.

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title = "Landfalling tropical cyclones accelerate due to land–sea thermal and roughness contrasts",

abstract = "Changes in the translation speed of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) pose great challenges in disaster preparedness. While some recent studies have discussed the increased chance of a reduction in the annual-mean translation speed of TCs after landfall, such changes before landfall have not been systematically investigated, especially for short-term variations (that is, hour-to-day timescales). Here we show, first based on observations, that globally, a TC about to make landfall tends to accelerate towards the coast, with an average acceleration of about 0.83 m s−1 per day, which means that the mean translation speed of a landfalling TC increases by \textasciitilde{}48\% during the 60-h period before landfall. Such an acceleration exists irrespective of TC intensity, seasonality and ocean basin, although its magnitude varies. Numerical simulations demonstrate that land–sea differences in surface roughness and thermal effect result in asymmetric circulation and convection in TCs, both of which are enhanced as the TC moves closer to the coast, leading to local changes in potential vorticity and thereby accelerating the storm. As this phenomenon is due to the land–sea contrast, a TC approaching the coast will probably have such an acceleration and hence it is inherent. {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2026.",

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AU - Zhong, Quanjia

AU - Chan, Johnny C. L.

AU - Duan, Wansuo

AU - Tu, Shifei

AU - Li, Jianping

AU - Gan, Jianping

AU - Ding, Ruiqiang

PY - 2026/2

Y1 - 2026/2

N2 - Changes in the translation speed of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) pose great challenges in disaster preparedness. While some recent studies have discussed the increased chance of a reduction in the annual-mean translation speed of TCs after landfall, such changes before landfall have not been systematically investigated, especially for short-term variations (that is, hour-to-day timescales). Here we show, first based on observations, that globally, a TC about to make landfall tends to accelerate towards the coast, with an average acceleration of about 0.83 m s−1 per day, which means that the mean translation speed of a landfalling TC increases by ~48% during the 60-h period before landfall. Such an acceleration exists irrespective of TC intensity, seasonality and ocean basin, although its magnitude varies. Numerical simulations demonstrate that land–sea differences in surface roughness and thermal effect result in asymmetric circulation and convection in TCs, both of which are enhanced as the TC moves closer to the coast, leading to local changes in potential vorticity and thereby accelerating the storm. As this phenomenon is due to the land–sea contrast, a TC approaching the coast will probably have such an acceleration and hence it is inherent. © The Author(s) 2026.

AB - Changes in the translation speed of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) pose great challenges in disaster preparedness. While some recent studies have discussed the increased chance of a reduction in the annual-mean translation speed of TCs after landfall, such changes before landfall have not been systematically investigated, especially for short-term variations (that is, hour-to-day timescales). Here we show, first based on observations, that globally, a TC about to make landfall tends to accelerate towards the coast, with an average acceleration of about 0.83 m s−1 per day, which means that the mean translation speed of a landfalling TC increases by ~48% during the 60-h period before landfall. Such an acceleration exists irrespective of TC intensity, seasonality and ocean basin, although its magnitude varies. Numerical simulations demonstrate that land–sea differences in surface roughness and thermal effect result in asymmetric circulation and convection in TCs, both of which are enhanced as the TC moves closer to the coast, leading to local changes in potential vorticity and thereby accelerating the storm. As this phenomenon is due to the land–sea contrast, a TC approaching the coast will probably have such an acceleration and hence it is inherent. © The Author(s) 2026.

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ER -

Landfalling tropical cyclones accelerate due to land–sea thermal and roughness contrasts

Abstract

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