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Interval estimation of value-at-risk based on GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations

Ngai Hang Chan, Shi-Jie Deng, Liang Peng, Zhendong Xia

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

Abstract

ARCH and GARCH models are widely used to model financial market volatilities in risk management applications. Considering a GARCH model with heavy-tailed innovations, we characterize the limiting distribution of an estimator of the conditional value-at-risk (VaR), which corresponds to the extremal quantile of the conditional distribution of the GARCH process. We propose two methods, the normal approximation method and the data tilting method, for constructing confidence intervals for the conditional VaR estimator and assess their accuracies by simulation studies. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to an energy market data set. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)556-576
JournalJournal of Econometrics
Volume137
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2007
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publication details (e.g. title, author(s), publication statuses and dates) are captured on an “AS IS” and “AS AVAILABLE” basis at the time of record harvesting from the data source. Suggestions for further amendments or supplementary information can be sent to [email protected].

Research Keywords

  • Data tilting
  • GARCH models
  • Heavy tail
  • Tail empirical process
  • Value-at-risk

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