Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

Xueke Li; Michael E. Mann; Michael F. Wehner; Shannon Christiansen

doi:10.1073/pnas.2504482122

Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

Xueke Li^*
, Michael E. Mann^*
, Michael F. Wehner
, Shannon Christiansen

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)

1 Downloads (CityUHK Scholars)

Abstract

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land–sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming. © 2025 the Author(s).

Original language	English
Article number	e2504482122
Number of pages	7
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	122
Issue number	25
Online published	16 Jun 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2504482122
Publication status	Published - 24 Jun 2025
Externally published	Yes

Funding

This work was supported (X.L., M.E.M., and S.C.) by funding from the School of Arts and Sciences of the University of Pennsylvania. M.F.W. was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy under Contract No. DE340AC02-05CH11231 under the Regional and Global Model Analysis program. We thank both reviewers for insightful comments and suggestions that improved the article substantively.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Research Keywords

Arctic amplification
climate change
ENSO
extreme events
planetary waves

Publisher's Copyright Statement

This full text is made available under CC-BY 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century. / Li, Xueke; Mann, Michael E.; Wehner, Michael F. et al.
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 122, No. 25, e2504482122, 24.06.2025.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

AU - Li, Xueke

AU - Mann, Michael E.

AU - Wehner, Michael F.

AU - Christiansen, Shannon

PY - 2025/6/24

Y1 - 2025/6/24

N2 - We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land–sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming. © 2025 the Author(s).

AB - We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land–sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming. © 2025 the Author(s).

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Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Research Keywords

Publisher's Copyright Statement

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