Government Epidemic Prevention and Economic Growth Path Under Public Health Emergency : Theoretical Model and Simulation Analysis

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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Author(s)

  • Zhichao Yin
  • Xiaoxu Chen
  • Zongshu Wang
  • Lijin Xiang

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Article number748041
Journal / PublicationFrontiers in Public Health
Volume9
Online published13 Sep 2021
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2021

Link(s)

Abstract

This paper constructs a partial equilibrium model under public health emergency shocks based on economic growth theory, and investigates the relationship between government intervention and virus transmission and economic growth path. We found that both close contacts tracing measures and isolation measures are beneficial to human capital stock and economic output per capita, and the effect of close contact tracing measures is better than that of isolation measures. For infectious diseases of different intensities, economic growth pathways differed across interventions. For low contagious public health emergencies, the focus should be on the coordination of isolation and tracing measures. For highly contagious public health emergencies, strict isolation, and tracing measures have limited effect in repairing the negative economic impact of the outbreak. The theoretical model provides a basic paradigm for the future researches to study economic growth under health emergencies, with good scalability and robustness.

Research Area(s)

  • economic growth path, epidemic prevention, public health emergency, simulation analysis, theoretical model

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