Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Daniella Hirschfeld; David Behar; Robert J. Nicholls; Niamh Cahill; Thomas James; Benjamin P. Horton; Michelle E. Portman; Rob Bell; Matthew Campo; Miguel Esteban; Bronwyn Goble; Munsur Rahman; Kwasi Appeaning Addo; Faiz Ahmed Chundeli; Monique Aunger; Orly Babitsky; Anders Beal; Ray Boyle; Jiayi Fang; Amir Gohar; Susan Hanson; Saul Karamesines; M. J. Kim; Hilary Lohmann; Kathy McInnes; Nobuo Mimura; Doug Ramsay; Landis Wenger; Hiromune Yokoki

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x

Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Daniella Hirschfeld^*
, David Behar
, Robert J. Nicholls
, Niamh Cahill
, Thomas James
, Benjamin P. Horton
, Michelle E. Portman
, Rob Bell
, Matthew Campo
, Miguel Esteban
, Bronwyn Goble
, Munsur Rahman
, Kwasi Appeaning Addo
, Faiz Ahmed Chundeli
, Monique Aunger
, Orly Babitsky
, Anders Beal
, Ray Boyle
, Jiayi Fang
, Amir Gohar

Susan Hanson, Saul Karamesines, M. J. Kim, Hilary Lohmann, Kathy McInnes, Nobuo Mimura, Doug Ramsay, Landis Wenger, Hiromune Yokoki

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)

19 Downloads (CityUHK Scholars)

Abstract

Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation. © 2023, The Author(s) and His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources.

Original language	English
Article number	102
Journal	Communications Earth & Environment
Volume	4
Online published	3 Apr 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x
Publication status	Published - 2023
Externally published	Yes

Funding

Many people across the world provided critical information to our questionnaire. We would like to thank them for taking time out of their busy schedules to support this research. D.H. was funded by Utah State University’s Office of Research. D.B. was funded by the people of the City and County of San Francisco and the SFPUC to participate in this research. R.J.N. was supported by the PROTECT Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 54. NC’s work was conducted with the financial support of Science Foundation Ireland and co-funded by Geological Survey Ireland under grant number 20/FFP-P/8610. For T.J., this is a contribution of the Climate Change Geoscience Program of Natural Resources Canada. BPH is supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 499. R.G.B. was supported by the NZ SeaRise Program funded by New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment Contract to the Research Trust at Victoria University (Contract ID - RTVU1705). M.C. acknowledges support from the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program. For M.E., the present work was performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. K.M. was supported by the Climate Systems Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental science Program (NESP) and CSIRO. We would like to recognize Muhammad Hadi Ikhsan for his work on the figures.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

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Hirschfeld, D., Behar, D., Nicholls, R. J., Cahill, N., James, T., Horton, B. P., Portman, M. E., Bell, R., Campo, M., Esteban, M., Goble, B., Rahman, M., Addo, K. A., Chundeli, F. A., Aunger, M., Babitsky, O., Beal, A., Boyle, R., Fang, J., ... Yokoki, H. (2023). Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation. Communications Earth & Environment, 4, Article 102. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x

@article{186e1f47ae6c4eb1bd043d215faf970b,

title = "Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation",

abstract = "Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72\% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53\% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13\% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation. {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s) and His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources.",

author = "Daniella Hirschfeld and David Behar and Nicholls, \{Robert J.\} and Niamh Cahill and Thomas James and Horton, \{Benjamin P.\} and Portman, \{Michelle E.\} and Rob Bell and Matthew Campo and Miguel Esteban and Bronwyn Goble and Munsur Rahman and Addo, \{Kwasi Appeaning\} and Chundeli, \{Faiz Ahmed\} and Monique Aunger and Orly Babitsky and Anders Beal and Ray Boyle and Jiayi Fang and Amir Gohar and Susan Hanson and Saul Karamesines and Kim, \{M. J.\} and Hilary Lohmann and Kathy McInnes and Nobuo Mimura and Doug Ramsay and Landis Wenger and Hiromune Yokoki",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x",

language = "English",

volume = "4",

journal = "Communications Earth \& Environment",

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Hirschfeld, D, Behar, D, Nicholls, RJ, Cahill, N, James, T, Horton, BP, Portman, ME, Bell, R, Campo, M, Esteban, M, Goble, B, Rahman, M, Addo, KA, Chundeli, FA, Aunger, M, Babitsky, O, Beal, A, Boyle, R, Fang, J, Gohar, A, Hanson, S, Karamesines, S, Kim, MJ, Lohmann, H, McInnes, K, Mimura, N, Ramsay, D, Wenger, L & Yokoki, H 2023, 'Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation', Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 4, 102. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

AU - Hirschfeld, Daniella

AU - Behar, David

AU - Nicholls, Robert J.

AU - Cahill, Niamh

AU - James, Thomas

AU - Horton, Benjamin P.

AU - Portman, Michelle E.

AU - Bell, Rob

AU - Campo, Matthew

AU - Esteban, Miguel

AU - Goble, Bronwyn

AU - Rahman, Munsur

AU - Addo, Kwasi Appeaning

AU - Chundeli, Faiz Ahmed

AU - Aunger, Monique

AU - Babitsky, Orly

AU - Beal, Anders

AU - Boyle, Ray

AU - Fang, Jiayi

AU - Gohar, Amir

AU - Hanson, Susan

AU - Karamesines, Saul

AU - Kim, M. J.

AU - Lohmann, Hilary

AU - McInnes, Kathy

AU - Mimura, Nobuo

AU - Ramsay, Doug

AU - Wenger, Landis

AU - Yokoki, Hiromune

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation. © 2023, The Author(s) and His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources.

AB - Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation. © 2023, The Author(s) and His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources.

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UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85152565751#tab=impact

UR - https://app-overton-io.ezproxy.cityu.edu.hk/articles.php?query=10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x

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M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

C2 - 38665203

SN - 2662-4435

VL - 4

JO - Communications Earth & Environment

JF - Communications Earth & Environment

M1 - 102

ER -

Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

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