Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong

Weibin Cheng; Hanchu Zhou; Yang Ye; Yifan Chen; Fengshi Jing; Zhidong Cao; Daniel Dajun Zeng; Qingpeng Zhang

doi:10.1063/5.0123870

Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong

Weibin Cheng, Hanchu Zhou, Yang Ye, Yifan Chen, Fengshi Jing, Zhidong Cao, Daniel Dajun Zeng^*, Qingpeng Zhang^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

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Abstract

The accumulation of susceptible populations for respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) when COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place might pose a greater risk of future RID outbreaks. We examined the timing and magnitude of RID resurgence after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs and assessed the burdens on the health system. We proposed the Threshold-based Control Method (TCM) to identify data-driven solutions to maintain the resilience of the health system by re-introducing NPIs when the number of severe infections reaches a threshold. There will be outbreaks of all RIDs with staggered peak times after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs. Such a large-scale resurgence of RID patients will impose a significant risk of overwhelming the health system. With a strict NPI strategy, a TCM-initiated threshold of 600 severe infections can ensure a sufficient supply of hospital beds for all hospitalized severely infected patients. The proposed TCM identifies effective dynamic NPIs, which facilitate future NPI relaxation policymaking. © 2023 Author(s).

Original language	English
Article number	013124
Journal	Chaos
Volume	33
Issue number	1
Online published	17 Jan 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0123870
Publication status	Published - Jan 2023

Funding

This work was supported in part by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Grant Nos. 11218221, C7154-20GF, C7151-20GF, and C1143-20GF). The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Research Keywords

PNEUMONIA REQUIRING HOSPITALIZATION
CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019
NONPHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS
SYNCYTIAL VIRUS
INFLUENZA
IMPACT
DYNAMICS

Publisher's Copyright Statement

COPYRIGHT TERMS OF DEPOSITED FINAL PUBLISHED VERSION FILE: This article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and AIP Publishing. This article appeared in Weibin Cheng, Hanchu Zhou, Yang Ye, Yifan Chen, Fengshi Jing, Zhidong Cao, Daniel Dajun Zeng, Qingpeng Zhang; Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong. Chaos 1 January 2023; 33 (1): 013124, and may be found at https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0123870.

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abstract = "The accumulation of susceptible populations for respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) when COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place might pose a greater risk of future RID outbreaks. We examined the timing and magnitude of RID resurgence after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs and assessed the burdens on the health system. We proposed the Threshold-based Control Method (TCM) to identify data-driven solutions to maintain the resilience of the health system by re-introducing NPIs when the number of severe infections reaches a threshold. There will be outbreaks of all RIDs with staggered peak times after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs. Such a large-scale resurgence of RID patients will impose a significant risk of overwhelming the health system. With a strict NPI strategy, a TCM-initiated threshold of 600 severe infections can ensure a sufficient supply of hospital beds for all hospitalized severely infected patients. The proposed TCM identifies effective dynamic NPIs, which facilitate future NPI relaxation policymaking. {\textcopyright} 2023 Author(s).",

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author = "Weibin Cheng and Hanchu Zhou and Yang Ye and Yifan Chen and Fengshi Jing and Zhidong Cao and Zeng, {Daniel Dajun} and Qingpeng Zhang",

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AU - Zhou, Hanchu

AU - Ye, Yang

AU - Chen, Yifan

AU - Jing, Fengshi

AU - Cao, Zhidong

AU - Zeng, Daniel Dajun

AU - Zhang, Qingpeng

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KW - DYNAMICS

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ER -

Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong

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GRF: Optimizing Interventions for Changing HIV Risk Behaviors via Temporal Link Prediction in MSM Social Networks

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Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong

Abstract

Funding

Research Keywords

Publisher's Copyright Statement

RGC Funding Information

Access Output

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Other Files and Links

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GRF: Optimizing Interventions for Changing HIV Risk Behaviors via Temporal Link Prediction in MSM Social Networks

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