Frequency of typhoon landfall over Guangdong Province of China during the period 1470-1931

Based on the records of local governments, the frequency of typhoon landfall over 22 cities/counties in the Guangdong Province of China during the period 1470-1931 is examined. The number of typhoons making landfall each year is used to form a time series. To reduce the level of uncertainty in the records, two other series are also formed, using 5- and 10-year totals. Application of various time series analysis techniques to the three series suggests that the frequency of typhoon landfall has a positive linear trend as well as centennial and decadal oscillations, the most significant being around 140-210 years and 30-60 years, respectively. Furthermore, the period of oscillation appears to change with time. Three sub-series can also be identified from this 462-year period: 1470-1667, 1668-1790 and 1791-1931. Each sub-series has its own characteristics, with a different autoregressive (AR) order. Copyright (C) 2000 Royal Meteorological Society.