Frequency of typhoon landfall over Guangdong Province of China during the period 1470-1931

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journal

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Author(s)

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)183-190
Journal / PublicationInternational Journal of Climatology
Volume20
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2000

Abstract

Based on the records of local governments, the frequency of typhoon landfall over 22 cities/counties in the Guangdong Province of China during the period 1470-1931 is examined. The number of typhoons making landfall each year is used to form a time series. To reduce the level of uncertainty in the records, two other series are also formed, using 5- and 10-year totals. Application of various time series analysis techniques to the three series suggests that the frequency of typhoon landfall has a positive linear trend as well as centennial and decadal oscillations, the most significant being around 140-210 years and 30-60 years, respectively. Furthermore, the period of oscillation appears to change with time. Three sub-series can also be identified from this 462-year period: 1470-1667, 1668-1790 and 1791-1931. Each sub-series has its own characteristics, with a different autoregressive (AR) order. Copyright (C) 2000 Royal Meteorological Society.

Research Area(s)

  • China, Interdecadal and centennial variability of rainfall, Variance analysis