Forecasting tropical cyclone turning motion from surrounding wind and temperature fields ( West Indies).

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journal

11 Scopus Citations
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Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)778-792
Journal / PublicationMonthly Weather Review
Volume108
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 1980
Externally publishedYes

Abstract

An analysis of tropical cyclone forecast track errors shows that the largest errors are typically associated with storms undergoing turning motion. This paper presents results obtained from a composite study of tropical cyclones occurring in the West Indies during 1961-77. These results suggest or verify previous ideas that 1) by measuring certain parameters around a storm (sense of surrounding wind rotation, vertical wind shear between 200 and 900mb, or gradient of tropospheric mean temperature) one may be able to make a better 24-36h forecast of cyclone turing motion; 2) the turning motion of tropical cyclones is controlled by large-scale flow fields surrounding them; and 3) there seems to be a time lage between the changes in the environment and the response of the storm center to such changes. -from Authors