Forecasting the hong kong construction demand - A pilot study

The construction industry is one of the main pillars of Hong Kong's economy. In recent years, however, the demand for construction activity has been changing dramatically, in terms of both volume and market structure. These changes in the construction industry, together with the rapid economic growth and liberalization of markets in mainland China and Macau, have had a serious impact on both the level of activity and type of work available to the construction. Forecasting construction demand in Hong Kong, therefore, has been recognized as an important indicator for industry development and for various industry stakeholders to formulate their short to medium-term procurement strategies and corporate development plans. This paper aims to present succinctly the trends of various construction activities in Hong Kong, and discuss preliminary findings of an ongoing research study on predicting the Hong Kong construction demand. Relevant forecasting methodologies and rationale for building demand-forecast models are explored via an extensive literature review. Empirical analysis and robust modelling will be undertaken in order to generate reliable construction demand forecast for the industry. The research findings of this study are expected to capture the output behaviour of the local construction industry and that of each sub-sector for facilitating the industry's sustainable development.