Forecasting the energy produced by a windmill on a yearly basis

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

10 Scopus Citations
View graph of relations

Author(s)

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1109-1122
Journal / PublicationStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Volume26
Issue number8
Online published8 Mar 2012
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2012
Externally publishedYes

Abstract

The objective of this article is to study as extensively as possible the uncertainties affecting the annual energy produced by a windmill. In the literature, the general approach is to estimate the mean annual energy from a transformation of a Weibull distribution law. Then the issue is reduced to estimating the coefficients of this distribution. This is obtained by classical statistical methods. Therefore, the uncertainties are mostly limited to those resulting from the statistical procedures. But in fact, the real uncertainty of the random variable which represents the annual energy cannot been reduced to the uncertainty on its mean and to the uncertainties induced from the estimation procedure. We propose here a model, which takes advantage of the fact that the annual energy production is the sum of many random variables representing the 10 min energy production during the year. Under some assumptions, we make use of the central limit theorem and show that an intrinsic uncertainties of wind power, usually not considered, carries an important risk. We also explain an observation coming from practice that the forecasted annual production is always overestimated, which creates a risk of reducing the profitability of the operation.

Research Area(s)

  • Central limit theorem, Intrinsic uncertainties of wind power, Quantile of annual wind power production

Citation Format(s)