Fine-grained prediction of solar-wind deployment unlocks China's 2060 pathways to carbon neutrality and lower energy costs

Jing Guo; Ruomei Wang; Li Zhang; Siqin Wang; Linyan Li; Mengbing Du; Fangyuan Zhong; Chuan Zhang; Yafei Li; Yixuan Zheng; Xiaoya Liu; Xi Lu; Jinnan Wang

doi:10.1039/d5ee01853f

Fine-grained prediction of solar-wind deployment unlocks China's 2060 pathways to carbon neutrality and lower energy costs

Jing Guo (Co-first Author)
, Ruomei Wang (Co-first Author)
, Li Zhang^*
, Siqin Wang
, Linyan Li
, Mengbing Du^*
, Fangyuan Zhong
, Chuan Zhang
, Yafei Li
, Yixuan Zheng
, Xiaoya Liu
, Xi Lu
, Jinnan Wang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is vital for mitigating climate change, yet plans to transition China are generally coarsely resolved. This study introduces the China New Energy Database, offering the first 10-km resolution feasibility ranking for wind and solar installations across China. By incorporating land-use regulations and construction constraints, we present an optimized development pathway from 2022 to 2060. Our results highlight substantial climate and economic benefits of renewable energy deployment, with wind and solar energy reducing up to 16.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions and generating 12.8 trillion CNY economic benefits by 2060. Regions with abundant renewable resources show significant potential for economic gains, demonstrating that reasonable strategic deployment could effectively “turn resources into gold”. These insights serve as a valuable reference for countries like India, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa in their transition to renewable energy, contributing to global progress in sustainable energy systems. © 2025 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	8142-8160
Journal	Energy and Environmental Science
Volume	18
Issue number	17
Online published	18 Jul 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1039/d5ee01853f
Publication status	Published - 7 Sept 2025

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 72140004 to J.W.).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth
SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 17 Partnerships for the Goals

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title = "Fine-grained prediction of solar-wind deployment unlocks China's 2060 pathways to carbon neutrality and lower energy costs",

abstract = "The global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is vital for mitigating climate change, yet plans to transition China are generally coarsely resolved. This study introduces the China New Energy Database, offering the first 10-km resolution feasibility ranking for wind and solar installations across China. By incorporating land-use regulations and construction constraints, we present an optimized development pathway from 2022 to 2060. Our results highlight substantial climate and economic benefits of renewable energy deployment, with wind and solar energy reducing up to 16.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions and generating 12.8 trillion CNY economic benefits by 2060. Regions with abundant renewable resources show significant potential for economic gains, demonstrating that reasonable strategic deployment could effectively “turn resources into gold”. These insights serve as a valuable reference for countries like India, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa in their transition to renewable energy, contributing to global progress in sustainable energy systems. {\textcopyright} 2025 The Royal Society of Chemistry.",

author = "Jing Guo and Ruomei Wang and Li Zhang and Siqin Wang and Linyan Li and Mengbing Du and Fangyuan Zhong and Chuan Zhang and Yafei Li and Yixuan Zheng and Xiaoya Liu and Xi Lu and Jinnan Wang",

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Fine-grained prediction of solar-wind deployment unlocks China's 2060 pathways to carbon neutrality and lower energy costs. / Guo, Jing (Co-first Author); Wang, Ruomei (Co-first Author); Zhang, Li et al.
In: Energy and Environmental Science, Vol. 18, No. 17, 07.09.2025, p. 8142-8160.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Fine-grained prediction of solar-wind deployment unlocks China's 2060 pathways to carbon neutrality and lower energy costs

AU - Guo, Jing

AU - Wang, Ruomei

AU - Zhang, Li

AU - Wang, Siqin

AU - Li, Linyan

AU - Du, Mengbing

AU - Zhong, Fangyuan

AU - Zhang, Chuan

AU - Li, Yafei

AU - Zheng, Yixuan

AU - Liu, Xiaoya

AU - Lu, Xi

AU - Wang, Jinnan

PY - 2025/9/7

Y1 - 2025/9/7

N2 - The global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is vital for mitigating climate change, yet plans to transition China are generally coarsely resolved. This study introduces the China New Energy Database, offering the first 10-km resolution feasibility ranking for wind and solar installations across China. By incorporating land-use regulations and construction constraints, we present an optimized development pathway from 2022 to 2060. Our results highlight substantial climate and economic benefits of renewable energy deployment, with wind and solar energy reducing up to 16.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions and generating 12.8 trillion CNY economic benefits by 2060. Regions with abundant renewable resources show significant potential for economic gains, demonstrating that reasonable strategic deployment could effectively “turn resources into gold”. These insights serve as a valuable reference for countries like India, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa in their transition to renewable energy, contributing to global progress in sustainable energy systems. © 2025 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

AB - The global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is vital for mitigating climate change, yet plans to transition China are generally coarsely resolved. This study introduces the China New Energy Database, offering the first 10-km resolution feasibility ranking for wind and solar installations across China. By incorporating land-use regulations and construction constraints, we present an optimized development pathway from 2022 to 2060. Our results highlight substantial climate and economic benefits of renewable energy deployment, with wind and solar energy reducing up to 16.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions and generating 12.8 trillion CNY economic benefits by 2060. Regions with abundant renewable resources show significant potential for economic gains, demonstrating that reasonable strategic deployment could effectively “turn resources into gold”. These insights serve as a valuable reference for countries like India, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa in their transition to renewable energy, contributing to global progress in sustainable energy systems. © 2025 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

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U2 - 10.1039/d5ee01853f

DO - 10.1039/d5ee01853f

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

SN - 1754-5692

VL - 18

SP - 8142

EP - 8160

JO - Energy and Environmental Science

JF - Energy and Environmental Science

IS - 17

ER -

Fine-grained prediction of solar-wind deployment unlocks China's 2060 pathways to carbon neutrality and lower energy costs

Abstract

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