Failing to Foresee the Updating of the Reference Point Leads to Time-Inconsistent Investment
Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62) › 21_Publication in refereed journal › peer-review
Author(s)
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Detail(s)
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 199-213 |
Journal / Publication | Operations Research |
Volume | 68 |
Issue number | 1 |
Online published | 18 Nov 2019 |
Publication status | Published - Jan 2020 |
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Abstract
The current literature on behavioral portfolio optimization with reference point updating assumes that the decision maker foresees how the reference point will evolve and thus solves a time-consistent problem formulation. Empirical findings, however, suggest that decision makers often fail to foresee the updating of the reference point and consequently make time-inconsistent decisions. We analyze and compare the optimal investment strategies for a discrete time behavioral portfolio optimization problem with loss-aversion and time-varying reference points under both the time-consistent and time-inconsistent framework and for different updating rules for the reference point. There is only one framework predicting realistic investment behavior: the decision maker fails to foresee the updating of the reference point and thus faces a time-inconsistent problem, solves for a dynamically optimal strategy, and updates the reference point in a nonrecursive manner.
Research Area(s)
- reference-dependent preferences, reference point updating, time-inconsistency, stochastic control, portfolio selection, prediction bias, BEHAVIORAL PORTFOLIO SELECTION, MYOPIC LOSS AVERSION, PROJECTION BIAS, PROSPECT-THEORY, DYNAMIC INCONSISTENCY, REALIZATION UTILITY, CHOICE, MONEY, ADAPTATION
Citation Format(s)
Failing to Foresee the Updating of the Reference Point Leads to Time-Inconsistent Investment. / Strub, Moris S.; Li, Duan.
In: Operations Research, Vol. 68, No. 1, 01.2020, p. 199-213.Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62) › 21_Publication in refereed journal › peer-review