Exploring public mood toward commodity markets : a comparative study of user behavior on Sina Weibo and Twitter

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

2 Scopus Citations
View graph of relations

Author(s)

Related Research Unit(s)

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1102-1119
Journal / PublicationInternet Research
Volume31
Issue number3
Online published12 Nov 2020
Publication statusPublished - 19 May 2021

Abstract

Purpose - Sina Weibo and Twitter are the top microblogging platforms with billions of users. Accordingly, these two platforms could be used to understand the public mood. In this paper, the authors want to discuss how to generate and compare the public mood on Sina Weibo and Twitter. The predictive power of the public mood toward commodity markets is discussed, and the authors want to solve the problem that how to choose between Sina Weibo and Twitter when predicting crude oil prices. 
Design/methodology/approach  - An enhanced latent Dirichlet allocation model considering term weights is implemented to generate topics from Sina Weibo and Twitter. Granger causality test and a long short-term memory neural network model are used to demonstrate that the public mood on Sina Weibo and Twitter is correlated with commodity contracts. 
Findings - By comparing the topics and the public mood on Sina Weibo and Twitter, the authors find significant differences in user behavior on these two websites. Besides, the authors demonstrate that public mood on Sina Weibo and Twitter is correlated with crude oil contract prices in Shanghai International Energy Exchange and New York Mercantile Exchange, respectively. 
Originality/value  - Two sentiment analysis methods for Chinese (Sina Weibo) and English (Twitter) posts are introduced, which can be reused for other semantic analysis tasks. Besides, the authors present a prediction model for the practical participants in the commodity markets and introduce a method to choose between Sina Weibo and Twitter for certain prediction tasks.

Research Area(s)

  • Microblogging, Natural language processing, Sentiment analysis, Social media, Topic modeling