Exploiting the essential assumptions of analogy-based effort estimation

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journal

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Author(s)

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Article number5728833
Pages (from-to)425-438
Journal / PublicationIEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Volume38
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes

Abstract

Background: There are too many design options for software effort estimators. How can we best explore them all? Aim: We seek aspects on general principles of effort estimation that can guide the design of effort estimators. Method: We identified the essential assumption of analogy-based effort estimation, i.e., the immediate neighbors of a project offer stable conclusions about that project. We test that assumption by generating a binary tree of clusters of effort data and comparing the variance of supertrees versus smaller subtrees. Results: For 10 data sets (from Coc81, Nasa93, Desharnais, Albrecht, ISBSG, and data from Turkish companies), we found: 1) The estimation variance of cluster subtrees is usually larger than that of cluster supertrees; 2) if analogy is restricted to the cluster trees with lower variance, then effort estimates have a significantly lower error (measured using MRE, AR, and Pred(25) with a Wilcoxon test, 95 percent confidence, compared to nearest neighbor methods that use neighborhoods of a fixed size). Conclusion: Estimation by analogy can be significantly improved by a dynamic selection of nearest neighbors, using only the project data from regions with small variance. © 1976-2012 IEEE.

Research Area(s)

  • analogy, k-NN, Software cost estimation

Citation Format(s)

Exploiting the essential assumptions of analogy-based effort estimation. / Kocaguneli, Ekrem; Menzies, Tim; Bener, Ayse Basar; Keung, Jacky W.

In: IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 38, No. 2, 5728833, 2012, p. 425-438.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journal