Exchange rates and markov switching dynamics
Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62) › 21_Publication in refereed journal
Author(s)
Detail(s)
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 314-320 |
| Journal / Publication | Journal of Business and Economic Statistics |
| Volume | 23 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Publication status | Published - Jul 2005 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Link(s)
Abstract
This article presents a systematic and extensive empirical study on the presence of Markov switching dynamics in three dollar-based exchange rates. A Monte Carlo approach is adopted to circumvent the statistical inference problem inherent to the test of regime-switching behavior. Two data frequencies, two sample periods, and various specifications are considered. Quarterly data yield inconclusive evidence; the test rejects neither random walk nor Markov switching. Monthly data, on the other hand, offer unambiguous evidence of the presence of Markov switching dynamics. The results suggest that data frequency, in addition to sample size, is crucial for determining the number of regimes. © 2005 American Statistical Association.
Research Area(s)
- Exchange rate dynamics, Monte Carlo test, Regime switching, Sampling frequency
Citation Format(s)
Exchange rates and markov switching dynamics. / Cheung, Yin-Wong; Erlandsson, Ulf G.
In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 23, No. 3, 07.2005, p. 314-320.Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62) › 21_Publication in refereed journal
