Exchange rates and markov switching dynamics

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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)314-320
Journal / PublicationJournal of Business and Economic Statistics
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2005
Externally publishedYes


This article presents a systematic and extensive empirical study on the presence of Markov switching dynamics in three dollar-based exchange rates. A Monte Carlo approach is adopted to circumvent the statistical inference problem inherent to the test of regime-switching behavior. Two data frequencies, two sample periods, and various specifications are considered. Quarterly data yield inconclusive evidence; the test rejects neither random walk nor Markov switching. Monthly data, on the other hand, offer unambiguous evidence of the presence of Markov switching dynamics. The results suggest that data frequency, in addition to sample size, is crucial for determining the number of regimes. © 2005 American Statistical Association.

Research Area(s)

  • Exchange rate dynamics, Monte Carlo test, Regime switching, Sampling frequency

Citation Format(s)