Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

Andra J. Garner; Jeremy L. Weiss; Adam Parris; Robert E. Kopp; Radley M. Horton; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Benjamin P. Horton

doi:10.1029/2018EF000991

Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

Andra J. Garner^*, Jeremy L. Weiss, Adam Parris, Robert E. Kopp, Radley M. Horton, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Benjamin P. Horton

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

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Abstract

The modern era of scientific global-mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To facilitate understanding of the historical development of SLR projections and contextualize current projections, we have compiled a comprehensive database of 21st century global SLR projections. Although central estimates of 21st century global-mean SLR have been relatively consistent, the range of projected SLR has varied greatly over time. Among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of upper projections shrank from 1.3–1.8 m during the 1980s to 0.6–0.9 m in 2007, before expanding again to 0.5–2.5 m since 2013. Upper projections of SLR from individual studies are generally higher than upper projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, potentially due to differing percentile bounds or a predisposition of consensus-based approaches toward relatively conservative outcomes. ©2018. The Authors.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1603-1615
Journal	Earth's Future
Volume	6
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000991
Publication status	Published - 1 Nov 2018
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publication details (e.g. title, author(s), publication statuses and dates) are captured on an “AS IS” and “AS AVAILABLE” basis at the time of record harvesting from the data source. Suggestions for further amendments or supplementary information can be sent to [email protected].

Funding

A. J. G. was supported by the National Science Foundation EAR Postdoctoral Fellowship 1625150, the Community Foundation of New Jersey, and David and Arlene McGlade. R. E. K. was supported in part by the National Science Foundation grant ICER-1663807 and NASA grant 80NSSC17K0698. B. P. H. acknowledges the funding from Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund Tier 2 MOE218-T2-1-030, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This paper is a contribution to the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) Project 639, Sea Level Change from Minutes to Millennia. This is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 221. Data used for this paper are vailable in the supporting information and will be maintained in the following github repository: https://github.com/AndraJGarner/SLRDatabase. A. J. G., J. L. W., A. P., R. E. K., R. M. H., J. T. O., and B. P. H. designed the research. A. J. G., J. L. W., A. P., R. E. K., R. M. H., and B. P. H. performed the research. A. J. G. performed the analysis. A. J. G., J. L. W., A. P., R. E. K., R. M. H., J.T. O., and B.P.H. wrote the paper.

Research Keywords

21st century
database
IPCC
projections
sea level rise

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This full text is made available under CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Research Keywords

Publisher's Copyright Statement

UN SDGs

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