Estimating mitigation potential and cost for air pollutants of China's thermal power generation: A GAINS-China model-based spatial analysis

As the most important form of power generation accounting for around 75% in Chinese power generation structure, thermal power generation is emitting multiple air pollutants, leading to serious environmental impairments and human health issues. An investigation of trends in regional features of pollutant emission and control cost is critical to better decision makings. By integrating GAINS-China model and spatial autocorrelation analysis, this study estimates and analyzes air pollutant (SO₂ and NO_x) emission, mitigation potential and control cost of thermal power generation in China's 31 regions from 2015 to 2030. The Business-as-Usual Scenario and Policy-Reinforced Scenario are set for comparison to quantify the effects of increasingly reinforced national emission control policies. The results show that up to 2030, with reinforced control policies and implementation of more abatement technologies, obvious mitigation effects of SO₂ and NO_x emission can be recognized. The regions with huge mitigation potential and higher total control cost are mainly located in the eastern coastal regions with higher gross domestic product and more power generation (such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu), as well as in the regions with abundant energy reserve and tremendous power supplied to other regions (such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi). The spatial autocorrelation analysis verifies that there is significant regional disparity, as well as agglomeration effects of pollutant emission of thermal power generation. The results presented by this study are expected to provide policy makers with reference when formulating emission control policies and regional goals for thermal power generation.