Equity-based carbon neutral plan induces cross-regional coal leakage and industrial relocation

Ziqiao Zhou; Xiaotian Ma; Silu Zhang; Chaoyi Guo; Xiaorui Liu; Lin Zhang; Yang Xie

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2024.109079

Equity-based carbon neutral plan induces cross-regional coal leakage and industrial relocation

Ziqiao Zhou
, Xiaotian Ma
, Silu Zhang
, Chaoyi Guo
, Xiaorui Liu
, Lin Zhang^*
, Yang Xie^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Energy and Environment

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

46 Downloads (CityUHK Scholars)

Abstract

China as a major coal-consuming economy faces the challenge of balancing economic development and carbon neutrality goal. This paper incorporates both efficiency-based and equity-based carbon neutrality policies into a numerical model to quantitatively assess how coal reduction under various carbon-neutral policies affects energy mix, economic growth, and industrial structures by 2060. Results show the nationwide coal intensity will ultimately plunge by over 95% from 2017 to 2060, mainly attributed to the coalphasing-out in most industries. National Gross Domestic Product losses reaches 4,951 billion USD in efficiency-based scenarios by 2060, and the economic losses are even more severe in less developed provinces, especially provinces in Northern China. Although the equity-based policy can reduce the economic burden for the Northern China, the equity-based policy is accompanied by a significant regional shift in coal across the country: eastern coal-intense industries will be relocated northward, leading to increases in embodied coal consumption.

© 2024 The Author(s)

Original language	English
Article number	109079
Journal	iScience
Volume	27
Issue number	3
Online published	1 Feb 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.109079
Publication status	Published - 15 Mar 2024

Funding

The study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (grant no. 2022YFC3702900), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72134006), and the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (N_CityU146/23 and G-CityU102/23). Lin Zhang acknowledges the financial support from the Center for Ocean Research in Hong Kong and Macau (CORE). The CORE is a joint research center for ocean research between Laoshan Laboratory and HKUST.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth

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This full text is made available under CC-BY 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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10.1016/j.isci.2024.109079

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Cite this

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title = "Equity-based carbon neutral plan induces cross-regional coal leakage and industrial relocation",

abstract = "China as a major coal-consuming economy faces the challenge of balancing economic development and carbon neutrality goal. This paper incorporates both efficiency-based and equity-based carbon neutrality policies into a numerical model to quantitatively assess how coal reduction under various carbon-neutral policies affects energy mix, economic growth, and industrial structures by 2060. Results show the nationwide coal intensity will ultimately plunge by over 95\% from 2017 to 2060, mainly attributed to the coalphasing-out in most industries. National Gross Domestic Product losses reaches 4,951 billion USD in efficiency-based scenarios by 2060, and the economic losses are even more severe in less developed provinces, especially provinces in Northern China. Although the equity-based policy can reduce the economic burden for the Northern China, the equity-based policy is accompanied by a significant regional shift in coal across the country: eastern coal-intense industries will be relocated northward, leading to increases in embodied coal consumption. {\textcopyright} 2024 The Author(s) ",

author = "Ziqiao Zhou and Xiaotian Ma and Silu Zhang and Chaoyi Guo and Xiaorui Liu and Lin Zhang and Yang Xie",

year = "2024",

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doi = "10.1016/j.isci.2024.109079",

language = "English",

volume = "27",

number = "3",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Equity-based carbon neutral plan induces cross-regional coal leakage and industrial relocation

AU - Zhou, Ziqiao

AU - Ma, Xiaotian

AU - Zhang, Silu

AU - Guo, Chaoyi

AU - Liu, Xiaorui

AU - Zhang, Lin

AU - Xie, Yang

PY - 2024/3/15

Y1 - 2024/3/15

N2 - China as a major coal-consuming economy faces the challenge of balancing economic development and carbon neutrality goal. This paper incorporates both efficiency-based and equity-based carbon neutrality policies into a numerical model to quantitatively assess how coal reduction under various carbon-neutral policies affects energy mix, economic growth, and industrial structures by 2060. Results show the nationwide coal intensity will ultimately plunge by over 95% from 2017 to 2060, mainly attributed to the coalphasing-out in most industries. National Gross Domestic Product losses reaches 4,951 billion USD in efficiency-based scenarios by 2060, and the economic losses are even more severe in less developed provinces, especially provinces in Northern China. Although the equity-based policy can reduce the economic burden for the Northern China, the equity-based policy is accompanied by a significant regional shift in coal across the country: eastern coal-intense industries will be relocated northward, leading to increases in embodied coal consumption. © 2024 The Author(s)

AB - China as a major coal-consuming economy faces the challenge of balancing economic development and carbon neutrality goal. This paper incorporates both efficiency-based and equity-based carbon neutrality policies into a numerical model to quantitatively assess how coal reduction under various carbon-neutral policies affects energy mix, economic growth, and industrial structures by 2060. Results show the nationwide coal intensity will ultimately plunge by over 95% from 2017 to 2060, mainly attributed to the coalphasing-out in most industries. National Gross Domestic Product losses reaches 4,951 billion USD in efficiency-based scenarios by 2060, and the economic losses are even more severe in less developed provinces, especially provinces in Northern China. Although the equity-based policy can reduce the economic burden for the Northern China, the equity-based policy is accompanied by a significant regional shift in coal across the country: eastern coal-intense industries will be relocated northward, leading to increases in embodied coal consumption. © 2024 The Author(s)

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85184770294

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/pubmetrics.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85184770294&origin=recordpage

U2 - 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109079

DO - 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109079

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

C2 - 38361631

SN - 2589-0042

VL - 27

JO - iScience

JF - iScience

IS - 3

M1 - 109079

ER -

Equity-based carbon neutral plan induces cross-regional coal leakage and industrial relocation

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Publisher's Copyright Statement

RGC Funding Information

Access Output

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Permanent Link

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Ger/HKJRS: Quantifying the Role of CBAM on Carbon Reduction and Its Implication for Corporate Emission Reporting

NSFC: Asset-stranding Risks of Energy Firms under the Carbon Neutrality Goals and Spillover Effects on the Capital Market in mainland China and Hong Kong

Cite this

Equity-based carbon neutral plan induces cross-regional coal leakage and industrial relocation

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Publisher's Copyright Statement

RGC Funding Information

Access Output

Other Access Options

Permanent Link

Other Files and Links

Fingerprint

Projects

Ger/HKJRS: Quantifying the Role of CBAM on Carbon Reduction and Its Implication for Corporate Emission Reporting

NSFC: Asset-stranding Risks of Energy Firms under the Carbon Neutrality Goals and Spillover Effects on the Capital Market in mainland China and Hong Kong

Cite this