Environmental risk and burden inequality intensified by changes in cultivated land patterns

Zhenting Zhao; Liangyou Wen; Kaiqin Li; Xiangbin Kong; Xiaoling Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108604

Environmental risk and burden inequality intensified by changes in cultivated land patterns

Zhenting Zhao (Co-first Author)
, Liangyou Wen (Co-first Author)
, Kaiqin Li
, Xiangbin Kong^*
, Xiaoling Zhang^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Public and International Affairs

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study quantifies environmental risks and inequalities from cultivated land changes in China using a two-way fixed-effects model. Rapid economic growth has intensified environmental burdens over three decades, exacerbating regional disparities. We integrate planetary boundaries (nitrogen, phosphorus, GHG emissions, bluewater) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2019–2030. The "sustainable development" pathway (SSP1) optimally reduces risks: nitrogen (-61.14 %), GHG emissions (-31.72 %), and bluewater use (-62.87 %). Phosphorus emissions decrease by 104.07 %, eliminating boundary exceedance and achieving sub-boundary safety. SSP1 also lowers environmental inequality (Gini indices: N = 0.18, P = 0.19, GHG=0.27, bluewater=0.27). This framework offers actionable insights for China and Global South nations, demonstrating how sustainable land-use pathways simultaneously mitigate environmental risks and promote equity. © 2025 Elsevier B.V.

Original language	English
Article number	108604
Journal	Resources, Conservation and Recycling
Volume	225
Online published	25 Sept 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108604
Publication status	Published - 15 Jan 2026

Funding

This research was supported by the Major Program of National Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 19ZDA096), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42501321, 42571307, 202103011910611).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth
SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 15 Life on Land
SDG 17 Partnerships for the Goals

Research Keywords

Environmental burden inequality
Environmental risks
Planetary boundary
Sustainable utilization of cultivated land

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10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108604

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title = "Environmental risk and burden inequality intensified by changes in cultivated land patterns",

abstract = "This study quantifies environmental risks and inequalities from cultivated land changes in China using a two-way fixed-effects model. Rapid economic growth has intensified environmental burdens over three decades, exacerbating regional disparities. We integrate planetary boundaries (nitrogen, phosphorus, GHG emissions, bluewater) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2019–2030. The {"}sustainable development{"} pathway (SSP1) optimally reduces risks: nitrogen (-61.14 \%), GHG emissions (-31.72 \%), and bluewater use (-62.87 \%). Phosphorus emissions decrease by 104.07 \%, eliminating boundary exceedance and achieving sub-boundary safety. SSP1 also lowers environmental inequality (Gini indices: N = 0.18, P = 0.19, GHG=0.27, bluewater=0.27). This framework offers actionable insights for China and Global South nations, demonstrating how sustainable land-use pathways simultaneously mitigate environmental risks and promote equity. {\textcopyright} 2025 Elsevier B.V.",

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author = "Zhenting Zhao and Liangyou Wen and Kaiqin Li and Xiangbin Kong and Xiaoling Zhang",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Environmental risk and burden inequality intensified by changes in cultivated land patterns

AU - Zhao, Zhenting

AU - Wen, Liangyou

AU - Li, Kaiqin

AU - Kong, Xiangbin

AU - Zhang, Xiaoling

PY - 2026/1/15

Y1 - 2026/1/15

N2 - This study quantifies environmental risks and inequalities from cultivated land changes in China using a two-way fixed-effects model. Rapid economic growth has intensified environmental burdens over three decades, exacerbating regional disparities. We integrate planetary boundaries (nitrogen, phosphorus, GHG emissions, bluewater) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2019–2030. The "sustainable development" pathway (SSP1) optimally reduces risks: nitrogen (-61.14 %), GHG emissions (-31.72 %), and bluewater use (-62.87 %). Phosphorus emissions decrease by 104.07 %, eliminating boundary exceedance and achieving sub-boundary safety. SSP1 also lowers environmental inequality (Gini indices: N = 0.18, P = 0.19, GHG=0.27, bluewater=0.27). This framework offers actionable insights for China and Global South nations, demonstrating how sustainable land-use pathways simultaneously mitigate environmental risks and promote equity. © 2025 Elsevier B.V.

AB - This study quantifies environmental risks and inequalities from cultivated land changes in China using a two-way fixed-effects model. Rapid economic growth has intensified environmental burdens over three decades, exacerbating regional disparities. We integrate planetary boundaries (nitrogen, phosphorus, GHG emissions, bluewater) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2019–2030. The "sustainable development" pathway (SSP1) optimally reduces risks: nitrogen (-61.14 %), GHG emissions (-31.72 %), and bluewater use (-62.87 %). Phosphorus emissions decrease by 104.07 %, eliminating boundary exceedance and achieving sub-boundary safety. SSP1 also lowers environmental inequality (Gini indices: N = 0.18, P = 0.19, GHG=0.27, bluewater=0.27). This framework offers actionable insights for China and Global South nations, demonstrating how sustainable land-use pathways simultaneously mitigate environmental risks and promote equity. © 2025 Elsevier B.V.

KW - Environmental burden inequality

KW - Environmental risks

KW - Planetary boundary

KW - Sustainable utilization of cultivated land

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105016850516

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/pubmetrics.uri?eid=2-s2.0-105016850516&origin=recordpage

U2 - 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108604

DO - 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108604

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

SN - 0921-3449

VL - 225

JO - Resources, Conservation and Recycling

JF - Resources, Conservation and Recycling

M1 - 108604

ER -

Environmental risk and burden inequality intensified by changes in cultivated land patterns

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Research Keywords

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