Energy implications of the Chinese-driven morphological transformation of Lusaka, Zambia

In Africa, ongoing urban fabric restructuring is often affected by exogenous factors. Nowadays, Lusaka is confronted with sprawling graftings of new portions of urban textures. Arguably, this is a consequence of massive foreign investments in the real estate sector from Chinese investors, and such a phenomenon has not been investigated in its energy implications yet.
This study attempts to understand how the spatial fixing of the Chinese capital impacts Lusaka's urban development towards carbon neutrality. For this purpose, snowball sampling was adopted for in-depth semi-structured interviews with relevant Zambian stakeholders. Thereafter, both long-standing and newly built environments have been investigated in their morphological dimensions, employing demographical data, remote sensing, and three-dimensional digital twins. Finally, simulations of on-site energy production at the district scale have been conducted. Results from the interviews show that, despite investors' interest in sustainability, there is a considerable unsustainable urban-growth-related electricity demand. Environmental pressures have been noted in the transformation of natural landscapes, with a recurrence of new mass housing and compact urban patterns. Findings show that the new settlements hinder the urgently needed urban energy transition.
This research aims to contribute to urban development strategies and guidelines for the promotion of synergies between real estate investment-related policies and environment-driven urban solutions, thus encouraging both the acceptance of investments in respect of the city's contextualized specificities and the introduction of a comprehensive urban vision—currently absent—, an umbrella for strategies towards Lusaka's sustainable urban development.
© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.