Enduring impacts of El Niño on life expectancy in past and future climates

Yanbin Xu; Wenjun Zhu; Dhrubajyoti Samanta; Benjamin P. Horton

doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02534-4

Enduring impacts of El Niño on life expectancy in past and future climates

Yanbin Xu^*, Wenjun Zhu, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Benjamin P. Horton^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Energy and Environment

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

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Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability, yet its long-term effect on life expectancy remains unclear. Here we quantify how ENSO persistently impedes mortality improvement, leading to considerable life expectancy and economic losses across high-income Pacific Rim countries. We estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years (monetary equivalent loss of US$2.6 trillion) for the 1982–1983 El Niño and 0.4 years (US$4.7 trillion) for the 1997–1998 event. Climate projections under moderate emissions pathways suggest a cumulative decline of 2.8 years in life expectancy by 2100, amounting to US$35 trillion losses, with most of the monetary burden falling on the middle-aged population. These findings reveal that intensifying ENSO variability poses an underrecognized and enduring threat to human health and socio-economic stability, underscoring the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to safeguard population well-being. © The Author(s) 2026.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	148-154
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	16
Issue number	2
Online published	9 Jan 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02534-4
Publication status	Published - Feb 2026

Funding

We dedicate this work to the memory of Ken Seng Tan, a guiding influence in our academic journeys and a mentor to Y.X. and W.Z. All authors acknowledge the funding support from the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund Tier 3 (MOE-MOET32022-0006). Y.X. also acknowledges the support of the Global-Asia Insurance Partnership (GAIP) for both his PhD studies and research assistant professorship.

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This full text is made available under CC-BY 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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abstract = "The El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability, yet its long-term effect on life expectancy remains unclear. Here we quantify how ENSO persistently impedes mortality improvement, leading to considerable life expectancy and economic losses across high-income Pacific Rim countries. We estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years (monetary equivalent loss of US$2.6 trillion) for the 1982–1983 El Ni{\~n}o and 0.4 years (US$4.7 trillion) for the 1997–1998 event. Climate projections under moderate emissions pathways suggest a cumulative decline of 2.8 years in life expectancy by 2100, amounting to US$35 trillion losses, with most of the monetary burden falling on the middle-aged population. These findings reveal that intensifying ENSO variability poses an underrecognized and enduring threat to human health and socio-economic stability, underscoring the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to safeguard population well-being. {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2026.",

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T1 - Enduring impacts of El Niño on life expectancy in past and future climates

AU - Xu, Yanbin

AU - Zhu, Wenjun

AU - Samanta, Dhrubajyoti

AU - Horton, Benjamin P.

PY - 2026/2

Y1 - 2026/2

N2 - The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability, yet its long-term effect on life expectancy remains unclear. Here we quantify how ENSO persistently impedes mortality improvement, leading to considerable life expectancy and economic losses across high-income Pacific Rim countries. We estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years (monetary equivalent loss of US$2.6 trillion) for the 1982–1983 El Niño and 0.4 years (US$4.7 trillion) for the 1997–1998 event. Climate projections under moderate emissions pathways suggest a cumulative decline of 2.8 years in life expectancy by 2100, amounting to US$35 trillion losses, with most of the monetary burden falling on the middle-aged population. These findings reveal that intensifying ENSO variability poses an underrecognized and enduring threat to human health and socio-economic stability, underscoring the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to safeguard population well-being. © The Author(s) 2026.

AB - The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability, yet its long-term effect on life expectancy remains unclear. Here we quantify how ENSO persistently impedes mortality improvement, leading to considerable life expectancy and economic losses across high-income Pacific Rim countries. We estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years (monetary equivalent loss of US$2.6 trillion) for the 1982–1983 El Niño and 0.4 years (US$4.7 trillion) for the 1997–1998 event. Climate projections under moderate emissions pathways suggest a cumulative decline of 2.8 years in life expectancy by 2100, amounting to US$35 trillion losses, with most of the monetary burden falling on the middle-aged population. These findings reveal that intensifying ENSO variability poses an underrecognized and enduring threat to human health and socio-economic stability, underscoring the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to safeguard population well-being. © The Author(s) 2026.

UR - https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:001657771300001

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-025-02534-4

DO - 10.1038/s41558-025-02534-4

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 16

SP - 148

EP - 154

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 2

ER -

Enduring impacts of El Niño on life expectancy in past and future climates

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