Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States

Xiao Chen, Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju, Ruoyan Sun, Jialiang Zhang

Research output: Working PapersWorking paper

Abstract

We study infectious diseases in a spatial epidemiology model with forward-looking individuals who weigh disease environments against economic opportunities when moving across regions. This endogenous mobility allows regions to share risk and health resources, resulting in positive epidemiological externalities for regions with high R0s. We develop the Normalized Hat Algebra to analyze disease and mobility dynamics. Applying our model to US data, we find that cross-state mobility controls that hinder risk and resource sharing increase COVID-19 deaths and decrease social welfare. Conversely, by enabling "self-containment" and "self-healing," endogenous mobility reduces COVID-19 infections by 27.6% and deaths by 22.1%.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationLondon
PublisherLondon School of Economics and Political Science
Number of pages64
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2024

Publication series

NameCEP Discussion Paper
PublisherLondon School of Economic and Political Science
No.1981
ISSN (Print)2042-2695

Bibliographical note

Research Unit(s) information for this publication is provided by the author(s) concerned.

Funding

This project has received funding from the Research Grant Council of Hong Kong (project No. CityU 11501121).

Research Keywords

  • SIRD model
  • spatial economy
  • endogenous mobility
  • basic reproduction number
  • Normalized Hat Algebra
  • containment policies

RGC Funding Information

  • RGC-funded

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