Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States

Xiao Chen; Hanwei Huang; Jiandong Ju; Ruoyan Sun; Jialiang Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104298

Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States

Xiao Chen
, Hanwei Huang^*
, Jiandong Ju
, Ruoyan Sun
, Jialiang Zhang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Economics and Finance

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

Abstract

We analyze infectious diseases in a general equilibrium model with endogenous mobility, where forward-looking agents weigh disease risks against economic opportunities in cross-regional mobility decisions. This generates “self-containment” and “self-healing” mobility responses to regional differences in healthcare and prevalence. Applied to US COVID-19 data, our model reveals that cross-state mobility restrictions curbed infections by reducing cross-regional contacts but increased deaths and output loss by hindering mobility toward regions with better recovery outcomes. Relative to a model with exogenous mobility, our framework predicts fewer infections, lower mortality, and higher economic output following the unanticipated pandemic shock. © 2026 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Original language	English
Journal	Journal of International Economics
Online published	20 Jun 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104298
Publication status	Online published - 20 Jun 2026

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72173021, 72342031, 72503271) and the Research Grant Council of Hong Kong (project No. CityU 11501121).

Research Keywords

Containment policies
Economic geography
Mobility
Hat algebra
SIRD model

RGC Funding Information

RGC-funded

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10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104298

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GRF: Trade, Migration, and Pandemics: the Effect of COVID-19 Containment Policies
HUANG, H. (Principal Investigator / Project Coordinator)
1/01/22 → 8/12/25
Project: Research

Cite this

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title = "Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States",

abstract = "We analyze infectious diseases in a general equilibrium model with endogenous mobility, where forward-looking agents weigh disease risks against economic opportunities in cross-regional mobility decisions. This generates “self-containment” and “self-healing” mobility responses to regional differences in healthcare and prevalence. Applied to US COVID-19 data, our model reveals that cross-state mobility restrictions curbed infections by reducing cross-regional contacts but increased deaths and output loss by hindering mobility toward regions with better recovery outcomes. Relative to a model with exogenous mobility, our framework predicts fewer infections, lower mortality, and higher economic output following the unanticipated pandemic shock. {\textcopyright} 2026 Published by Elsevier B.V.",

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author = "Xiao Chen and Hanwei Huang and Jiandong Ju and Ruoyan Sun and Jialiang Zhang",

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language = "English",

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T1 - Endogenous mobility in pandemics

T2 - Theory and evidence from the United States

AU - Chen, Xiao

AU - Huang, Hanwei

AU - Ju, Jiandong

AU - Sun, Ruoyan

AU - Zhang, Jialiang

PY - 2026/6/20

Y1 - 2026/6/20

N2 - We analyze infectious diseases in a general equilibrium model with endogenous mobility, where forward-looking agents weigh disease risks against economic opportunities in cross-regional mobility decisions. This generates “self-containment” and “self-healing” mobility responses to regional differences in healthcare and prevalence. Applied to US COVID-19 data, our model reveals that cross-state mobility restrictions curbed infections by reducing cross-regional contacts but increased deaths and output loss by hindering mobility toward regions with better recovery outcomes. Relative to a model with exogenous mobility, our framework predicts fewer infections, lower mortality, and higher economic output following the unanticipated pandemic shock. © 2026 Published by Elsevier B.V.

AB - We analyze infectious diseases in a general equilibrium model with endogenous mobility, where forward-looking agents weigh disease risks against economic opportunities in cross-regional mobility decisions. This generates “self-containment” and “self-healing” mobility responses to regional differences in healthcare and prevalence. Applied to US COVID-19 data, our model reveals that cross-state mobility restrictions curbed infections by reducing cross-regional contacts but increased deaths and output loss by hindering mobility toward regions with better recovery outcomes. Relative to a model with exogenous mobility, our framework predicts fewer infections, lower mortality, and higher economic output following the unanticipated pandemic shock. © 2026 Published by Elsevier B.V.

KW - Containment policies

KW - Economic geography

KW - Mobility

KW - Hat algebra

KW - SIRD model

U2 - 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104298

DO - 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104298

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

SN - 0022-1996

JO - Journal of International Economics

JF - Journal of International Economics

ER -

Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States

Abstract

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Research Keywords

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GRF: Trade, Migration, and Pandemics: the Effect of COVID-19 Containment Policies

Cite this