Endogenous Cross-Region Human Mobility and Pandemics

Research output: Working PapersWorking paper

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Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
PublisherSSRN
Publication statusOnline published - 9 Jun 2022

Abstract

We study infectious diseases using a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased model with endogenous cross-region human mobility. Individuals weigh the risk of infection against economic opportunities when moving across regions. The model predicts that the mobility rate of susceptible individuals declines with a higher infection rate at the destination. With cross-region mobility, a decrease in the transmission rate or an increase in the removal rate of the virus in any region reduces the global basic reproduction number (R0). Global R0 falls between the minimum and maximum of local R0s. A new method of Normalized Hat Algebra is developed to solve the model dynamics. Simulations indicate that a decrease in global R0 does not always imply a lower cumulative infection rate. Local and central governments may prefer different mobility control policies.

Research Area(s)

  • SIRD mode, spatial economy, endogenous mobility, basic reproduction number, Normalized Hat Algebra

Citation Format(s)

Endogenous Cross-Region Human Mobility and Pandemics. / Chen, Xiao; Huang, Hanwei; Ju, Jiandong; Sun, Ruoyan; Zhang, Jialiang.

SSRN, 2022.

Research output: Working PapersWorking paper