Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020

Yacong Bo; Cui Guo; Changqing Lin; Yiqian Zeng; Hao Bi Li; Yumiao Zhang; Md Shakhaoat Hossain; Jimmy W.M. Chan; David W. Yeung; Kin On Kwok; Samuel Y.S. Wong; Alexis K.H. Lau; Xiang Qian Lao

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.066

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020

Yacong Bo (Co-first Author)
, Cui Guo (Co-first Author)
, Changqing Lin
, Yiqian Zeng
, Hao Bi Li
, Yumiao Zhang
, Md Shakhaoat Hossain
, Jimmy W.M. Chan
, David W. Yeung
, Kin On Kwok
, Samuel Y.S. Wong
, Alexis K.H. Lau^*
, Xiang Qian Lao^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

242 Citations (Scopus)

66 Downloads (CityUHK Scholars)

Abstract

Background: To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of four types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19).

Methods: This study included 1,908,197 confirmed COVID-19 cases from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April 2020. The implemented NPIs were categorised into four types: mandatory face mask in public, isolation or quarantine, social distancing and traffic restriction (referred to as mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic hereafter, respectively).

Results: The implementations of mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic were associated with changes (95% confidence interval, CI) of −15.14% (from −21.79% to −7.93%), −11.40% (from −13.66% to −9.07%), −42.94% (from −44.24% to −41.60%) and −9.26% (from −11.46% to −7.01%) in the Rt of COVID-19 when compared with those without the implementation of the corresponding measures. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more types of NPIs seemed to be associated with a greater decrease in the Rt of COVID-19.

Conclusion: Our study indicates that NPIs can significantly contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more NPIs should be the strategic priorities for containing COVID-19.

© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	247-253
Number of pages	7
Journal	International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume	102
Online published	29 Oct 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.066
Publication status	Published - Jan 2021
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors

Funding

This study is in part supported by the Environmental Health Research Fund of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (7104946). Yacong Bo is supported by the Ph.D. Studentship of the Chinese University of Hong Kong. This study is in part supported by the E nvironmental Health Research Fund of the C hinese University of Hong Kong ( 7104946) . Yacong Bo is supported by the Ph.D. Studentship of the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Research Keywords

COVID-19
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Time-Varying effective reproduction number (Rt)

Publisher's Copyright Statement

This full text is made available under CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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Bo, Y., Guo, C., Lin, C., Zeng, Y., Li, H. B., Zhang, Y., Hossain, M. S., Chan, J. W. M., Yeung, D. W., Kwok, K. O., Wong, S. Y. S., Lau, A. K. H., & Lao, X. Q. (2021). Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 102, 247-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.066

@article{248cd2b1ecf2433781c95606ab5a75a0,

title = "Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020",

abstract = "Background: To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of four types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Methods: This study included 1,908,197 confirmed COVID-19 cases from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April 2020. The implemented NPIs were categorised into four types: mandatory face mask in public, isolation or quarantine, social distancing and traffic restriction (referred to as mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic hereafter, respectively). Results: The implementations of mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic were associated with changes (95\% confidence interval, CI) of −15.14\% (from −21.79\% to −7.93\%), −11.40\% (from −13.66\% to −9.07\%), −42.94\% (from −44.24\% to −41.60\%) and −9.26\% (from −11.46\% to −7.01\%) in the Rt of COVID-19 when compared with those without the implementation of the corresponding measures. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more types of NPIs seemed to be associated with a greater decrease in the Rt of COVID-19. Conclusion: Our study indicates that NPIs can significantly contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more NPIs should be the strategic priorities for containing COVID-19. {\textcopyright} 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. ",

keywords = "COVID-19, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Time-Varying effective reproduction number (Rt)",

author = "Yacong Bo and Cui Guo and Changqing Lin and Yiqian Zeng and Li, \{Hao Bi\} and Yumiao Zhang and Hossain, \{Md Shakhaoat\} and Chan, \{Jimmy W.M.\} and Yeung, \{David W.\} and Kwok, \{Kin On\} and Wong, \{Samuel Y.S.\} and Lau, \{Alexis K.H.\} and Lao, \{Xiang Qian\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 The Authors",

year = "2021",

month = jan,

doi = "10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.066",

language = "English",

volume = "102",

pages = "247--253",

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Bo, Y, Guo, C, Lin, C, Zeng, Y, Li, HB, Zhang, Y, Hossain, MS, Chan, JWM, Yeung, DW, Kwok, KO, Wong, SYS, Lau, AKH & Lao, XQ 2021, 'Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020', International Journal of Infectious Diseases, vol. 102, pp. 247-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.066

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020. / Bo, Yacong (Co-first Author); Guo, Cui (Co-first Author); Lin, Changqing et al.
In: International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol. 102, 01.2021, p. 247-253.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020

AU - Bo, Yacong

AU - Guo, Cui

AU - Lin, Changqing

AU - Zeng, Yiqian

AU - Li, Hao Bi

AU - Zhang, Yumiao

AU - Hossain, Md Shakhaoat

AU - Chan, Jimmy W.M.

AU - Yeung, David W.

AU - Kwok, Kin On

AU - Wong, Samuel Y.S.

AU - Lau, Alexis K.H.

AU - Lao, Xiang Qian

PY - 2021/1

Y1 - 2021/1

N2 - Background: To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of four types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Methods: This study included 1,908,197 confirmed COVID-19 cases from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April 2020. The implemented NPIs were categorised into four types: mandatory face mask in public, isolation or quarantine, social distancing and traffic restriction (referred to as mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic hereafter, respectively). Results: The implementations of mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic were associated with changes (95% confidence interval, CI) of −15.14% (from −21.79% to −7.93%), −11.40% (from −13.66% to −9.07%), −42.94% (from −44.24% to −41.60%) and −9.26% (from −11.46% to −7.01%) in the Rt of COVID-19 when compared with those without the implementation of the corresponding measures. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more types of NPIs seemed to be associated with a greater decrease in the Rt of COVID-19. Conclusion: Our study indicates that NPIs can significantly contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more NPIs should be the strategic priorities for containing COVID-19. © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.

AB - Background: To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of four types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Methods: This study included 1,908,197 confirmed COVID-19 cases from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April 2020. The implemented NPIs were categorised into four types: mandatory face mask in public, isolation or quarantine, social distancing and traffic restriction (referred to as mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic hereafter, respectively). Results: The implementations of mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic were associated with changes (95% confidence interval, CI) of −15.14% (from −21.79% to −7.93%), −11.40% (from −13.66% to −9.07%), −42.94% (from −44.24% to −41.60%) and −9.26% (from −11.46% to −7.01%) in the Rt of COVID-19 when compared with those without the implementation of the corresponding measures. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more types of NPIs seemed to be associated with a greater decrease in the Rt of COVID-19. Conclusion: Our study indicates that NPIs can significantly contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more NPIs should be the strategic priorities for containing COVID-19. © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.

KW - COVID-19

KW - Non-pharmaceutical interventions

KW - Time-Varying effective reproduction number (Rt)

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M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

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ER -

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Research Keywords

Publisher's Copyright Statement

Policy Impact

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