Dynamic Influences of Risk Perception and Institutional Trust on Adaptive Copings: A Latent Growth Curve Analysis of Self-Efficacy, Post-COVID-19 Resilience, and Recovery to Normality

Previous research has explored the synchronous effects of cognitive risk perception and institutional trust on adaptive coping factors during COVID-19. However, their delayed impact, particularly the influence of initial levels and trajectories on self-efficacy, resilience, and normality recovery, remains understudied. This study focuses on the dynamic trajectory of self-efficacy while treating post-COVID resilience and normality recovery as static outcomes. Using Latent Growth Curve Modeling (LGCM) and panel data from Hong Kong (N=694),collected between 2021 (pandemic peak) and 2023 (post-pandemic), it revealed that institutional trust and cognitive risk perception exhibited upward trajectories, while self-efficacy of prevention declined over time. A contrasting dynamic emerged: higher initial cognitive risk perception at the pandemic's peak (intercept) enhanced self-efficacy at that time (intercept) and buffered its decline (slope) over time but hindered post-COVID resilience and normality recovery. Conversely, a faster increase (slope) in institutional trust mitigated the decline (slope) in self-efficacy of prevention and enhanced post-COVID resilience and recovery. The study reveals that cognitive risk perception’s intercept (rather than slope) and institutional trust’s slope (rather than intercept) play a stronger role in shaping adaptive coping.