Dynamic energy and environment equilibrium model for the assessment of CO2 emission control in Canada and the USA

In this paper, an energy process model with geometric distributed lag (GDL) demand, called the energy GDL process model, was updated to aid in CO₂ emission control policy analysis. An updated energy GDL process model of supplies and demands of oil, gas, electricity and coal in Canada and the USA was constructed to assess the impacts of controls on CO₂ emission in Canada and the USA. This model was formulated, constructed and solved with the updated GDL version of the Waterloo energy modelling system (WATEMS-GDL), which uses the new decoupling algorithm, to calculate an intertemporal equilibrium of energy supplies and demands. A comparison of scenarios suggests that delay in launching a CO₂ emission control program can be very costly. Furthermore, given the current array of fuels, supply technologies and consumer response, it seems impossible to reach the Toronto conference targets, i.e. reducing to 50% below the 1988 CO₂ emission level by 2030; significant changes are required in fuels, technologies or life-styles.