Customized decarbonization strategies for central heating in 142 Chinese cities: Combining spatial decomposition with cluster analysis

The decarbonization of central heating sector in China is crucial for global sustainable development. Carbon emissions from central heating (CECH) at the city level show significant heterogeneity due to specific characteristics of each city. Previous studies have rarely comprehensively considered both urban characteristics and the driving factors of CECH when exploring decarbonization strategies at the city level. To address this important research gap, this study proposed an integrated method combining spatial decomposition and cluster analysis to analyze the per capita CECH (PC) of 142 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2021. The results include: (1) PC of most cities increased from 2006 to 2021, which mainly concentrated in the northeast and northwest regions; (2) Cities were grouped based on their urbanization levels and climatic conditions, and the contributions of driving factors to intra-group and inter-group disparities were analyzed through spatial decomposition; (3) Three types of coordination relationships between the dominant driving factors of PC and urban characteristics were revealed through cluster analysis, providing a basis for developing customized decarbonization strategies. This study not only proposed a methodology for formulating city-level decarbonization strategies that combined driving factors of PC with urban characteristics, but also provided policy implications for the decarbonization of central heating in different types of cities. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd.