Credit market conditions, expected return proxies, and bank stock returns

We evaluate the performance of expected return proxies during extreme credit market conditions and extreme phases of business cycles when realized returns on banks stocks are large in absolute value. We construct three sets of expected return proxies for individual bank stocks: (i) characteristic-based proxies; (ii) standard risk-factor-based proxies; and (iii) risk-factor-based proxies in which betas depend on firm characteristics. Based on the newly developed minimum error variance (MEV) criterion (Lee et al., 2020), the best performing expected return proxy is the risk-factor-based model that allows betas to vary with firm characteristics. We also examine whether these three expected return proxies can capture actual returns during either extreme credit market or extreme business-cycle conditions. We find that both risk-factor-based proxies explain returns better than characteristic-based proxies during these periods. © 2024 Elsevier Inc.