Comparative Study of COVID-19 Pandemic Progressions in 175 Regions in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Spain, U.K. And USA Using a Novel Model That Considers Testing Capacity and Deficiency in Confirming Infected Cases

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Article number9456083
Pages (from-to)2836-2847
Journal / PublicationIEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics
Volume25
Issue number8
Online published15 Jun 2021
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2021

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Abstract

Not identified as being exposed or infected, the group of asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients has become the key source of infectious hosts for the COVID-19 pandemic, triggering the re-emergence of outbreaks. Acknowledging the impacts of movement of unidentified patients and the limited testing capacity on understanding the spread of the virus, an augmented Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Confirmed-Recovered (SEICR) model integrating intercity migration data and testing capacity is developed to probe into the number of unidentified COVID-19 infected patients. This model allows evaluation of the effectiveness of active interventions, and more accurate prediction of the pandemic progression in a country, region or city. A pseudo-coevolutionary algorithm is adopted in the model fitting to provide an effective estimation of high-dimensional unknown parameter sets using a limited amount of historical data. The model is applied to 175 regions in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK and USA to estimate the number of unconfirmed cases using limited historical data. Results showed that the actual number of infected cases could be 4.309 times as many as the official confirmed number. By implementing mass COVID-19 testing, the number of infected cases could be reduced by about 50%.

Research Area(s)

  • COVID-19 pandemic, model, human migration, test capacity

Citation Format(s)

Comparative Study of COVID-19 Pandemic Progressions in 175 Regions in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Spain, U.K. And USA Using a Novel Model That Considers Testing Capacity and Deficiency in Confirming Infected Cases. / Zhan, Choujun; Tse, Chi K.; Gao, Ying; Hao, Tianyong.

In: IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics, Vol. 25, No. 8, 9456083, 08.2021, p. 2836-2847.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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