Climate change critical to cultural heritage

Although modellers have established the type of climate expected in Europe over the coming century, they have not been concerned with the combination of meteorological variables most important to building damage. We have identified the climatic parameters most likely to be critical for architectural surfaces and structures. They have been loosely grouped as: (1) Temperature derived parameters - range, freeze thaw, thermal shock (2) Water derived parameters - precipitation, humidity cycles, time of wetness (3) Wind derived parameters - wind, wind driven rain, sand and salt. We also looked at pollution derived parameters such as SO₂, NO₂, elemental carbon and pH, but neglect these in this analysis which focuses on a European situation with much reduced air pollution forecast for the future. As expected a future Europe will experience less frost damage to porous stone, although higher temperatures can enhance fungal growth on wood. Drier summers seem likely to increase structural problems from desiccated soils and salt weathering of porous stone. Our work hint at likely heritage management strategies for the future.