Citizen Expectations and Satisfaction in a Young Democracy: A Test of the Expectancy-Disconfirmation Model

Citizen satisfaction with public services has been shown to depend on citizens’ expectations and their perceptions of performance. If performance exceeds expectations, satisfaction is likely; if performance falls short of expectations, dissatisfaction is likely. The existing evidence on this process covers the United States and the United Kingdom. The authors generalize the idea of expectation-driven citizen satisfaction (the “expectancy-disconfirmation model”) theoretically and empirically to an institutional context of limited accountability and widespread citizen distrust. Using a survey of a broad cross-section of the general adult population in Guadalajara, Mexico, in 2014, this article finds support for the expectancy-disconfirmation model in this very different context. The authors also test for an effect of the type of expectation using an embedded, randomized experiment but do not find evidence of a difference between normative and empirical expectations. Findings support the usefulness of the expectancy-disconfirmation model in a wide range of contexts.