China’s New Labour Policy: Guided Development for Labour NGOs

In line with the principle of ‘small government, big society', the Chinese authorities are likely to considerably expand the service delivery role of NGOs which do not intend to challenge the Party-state. These NGOs could be allowed a respected place in society, and they would have the financial resources from the government to offer needed services. On the other hand, NGOs which are perceived to pose a threat to the Party-state will continue to be suppressed. United front tactics are likely to be adopted, and leaders of these NGOs will be induced to alter their mode of operation into one acceptable to the Chinese authorities — i.e. both carrots and sticks are applied. Meanwhile, civil society will continue to grow quantitatively and qualitatively. Optimistic estimates are that, at this stage, China has about 7‒8 million social organizations involving about 300 million people, about one-fifth of China's total population. This critical mass is still inadequate to exert pressure on the Party-state to introduce serious political reforms, but if this ‘progressive civil society population' expands to 30 or 40 per cent of the entire population in less than 10‒15 years’ time, then the threshold may be reached. This may not be a very useful way of defining or examining the threshold, but is an interesting illustration. In sum, in the coming four or five years, it is difficult to anticipate serious political reforms leading to democratization, and civil society is not likely to achieve significant breakthroughs. But the trend is obvious, civil society in China will continue to expand and strengthen, and pressure will build for a dialogue between the Party-state and civil society to avoid crises and violent confrontations. © 2015 City University of Hong Kong.