Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

Tina Dura; Andra J. Garner; Robert Weiss; Robert E. Kopp; Simon E. Engelhart; Robert C. Witter; Richard W. Briggs; Charles S. Mueller; Alan R. Nelson; Benjamin P. Horton

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8

Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

Tina Dura^*
, Andra J. Garner
, Robert Weiss
, Robert E. Kopp
, Simon E. Engelhart
, Robert C. Witter
, Richard W. Briggs
, Charles S. Mueller
, Alan R. Nelson
, Benjamin P. Horton

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

21 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~M_w9.1 (required today) to M_w8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. © 2021, The Author(s).

Original language	English
Article number	7119
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	12
Online published	8 Dec 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8
Publication status	Published - 2021
Externally published	Yes

Funding

This work was supported by funding from National Science Foundation awards to T.D. (EAR-1624795), T.D. and B.P.H. (EAR-1624533), R.W. (DGE-1735139 and GLD-1630099), A.J.G. (EAR-1625150), and R.E.K. (ICER-1663807), and from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to R.E.K. (80NSSC17K0698). B.P.H. is also supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004 and MOE2018-T2-1-030, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centers of Excellence initiative. R.C.W., R.W.B., C.S.M., and A.R.N. are supported by the Earthquake Hazard Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. This work is a contribution to PALSEA2 (Palaeo-Constraints on Sea-Level Rise) and the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) Project 639 and 725. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 417. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

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title = "Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise",

abstract = "The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from \textasciitilde{}Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is \textasciitilde{}6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

author = "Tina Dura and Garner, \{Andra J.\} and Robert Weiss and Kopp, \{Robert E.\} and Engelhart, \{Simon E.\} and Witter, \{Robert C.\} and Briggs, \{Richard W.\} and Mueller, \{Charles S.\} and Nelson, \{Alan R.\} and Horton, \{Benjamin P.\}",

year = "2021",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8",

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AU - Dura, Tina

AU - Garner, Andra J.

AU - Weiss, Robert

AU - Kopp, Robert E.

AU - Engelhart, Simon E.

AU - Witter, Robert C.

AU - Briggs, Richard W.

AU - Mueller, Charles S.

AU - Nelson, Alan R.

AU - Horton, Benjamin P.

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. © 2021, The Author(s).

AB - The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. © 2021, The Author(s).

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DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

C2 - 34880254

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 12

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

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Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

Abstract

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