Beyond the shadow-of-trial: Decision-making behind plea bargaining in Hong Kong

A theoretical explanation of plea bargaining is the shadow-of-trial model (Mnookin and Kornhauser, 1979), which asserts that decision-making behind plea bargaining are based on the probability of conviction and sentence severity. Using the context of Hong Kong's criminal justice system, this study confirms previous studies that found the shadow-of-trial model overly simplistic. In-depth interviews with Hong Kong criminal defense lawyers revealed that while the probability of conviction and sentence severity are important, other salient factors, namely the costs of being caught up in the criminal justice system and the one-third sentence discount must be taken into account as well. Overall, the shadow-of-trial model is not a good explanatory model for why criminal defendants enter into plea bargaining.