Balance-of-payments anti-crises

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

2 Scopus Citations
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Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)186-202
Journal / PublicationJournal of Macroeconomics
Volume48
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2016

Abstract

China and Switzerland have recently experienced foreign exchange reserve accumulation far in excess of what would be implied by the literature on optimal reserves. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the credible expectation of an upper limit to how many reserves a country is willing to accumulate would lead to a balance-of-payments anti-crisis. This is characterized by an accelerated pre-crisis accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, followed by a collapse of the monetary target that is instantaneous under exchange rate targeting and gradual under price level targeting. We argue that Switzerland has recently experienced such an event.

Research Area(s)

  • Exchange rate targeting, Foreign exchange intervention, Foreign exchange reserves, Price level targeting

Citation Format(s)

Balance-of-payments anti-crises. / Kumhof, Michael; Yan, Isabel.
In: Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 48, 01.06.2016, p. 186-202.

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review