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Balance-of-payments anti-crises

  • Michael Kumhof
  • , Isabel Yan*
  • *Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

Abstract

China and Switzerland have recently experienced foreign exchange reserve accumulation far in excess of what would be implied by the literature on optimal reserves. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the credible expectation of an upper limit to how many reserves a country is willing to accumulate would lead to a balance-of-payments anti-crisis. This is characterized by an accelerated pre-crisis accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, followed by a collapse of the monetary target that is instantaneous under exchange rate targeting and gradual under price level targeting. We argue that Switzerland has recently experienced such an event.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)186-202
JournalJournal of Macroeconomics
Volume48
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2016

Research Keywords

  • Exchange rate targeting
  • Foreign exchange intervention
  • Foreign exchange reserves
  • Price level targeting

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