Assessing wind curtailment under different wind capacity considering the possibilistic uncertainty of wind resources

For power system decision makers, they should decide a reasonable wind capacity or target penetration level considering the balance of wind curtailment, investment, system reliability and social benefit. Assessing wind curtailment under different wind capacity, considering the wind resource uncertainty, is therefore necessary for utilizing wind power effectively. In this paper, fuzzy wind capacity factor is proposed to analyze and propagate the uncertainty of wind resources based on the wind speed distribution. By investigating the maximal wind power output that can be accepted in candidate system nodes, a fuzzy linear programming problem is proposed to decide the required wind capacity considering the fuzzy wind capacity factor. Based on the cumulative distribution function of wind capacity resulting from large number of simulations, the relationship between wind capacity and wind curtailment is determined. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated by its application in two power grids. The results demonstrate that the proposed model and method are capable of describing the possibilistic uncertainty of wind resources and assessing wind curtailment under different wind capacity. Compared with previous research, this method can aid power system planners to allocate wind capacity considering the possibilistic uncertainty of wind resources.