Applying Importance Measures to Risk Analysis in Engineering Project Using a Risk Network Model

Risk analysis and prioritization are a key process in project risk management (PRM). Its outcomes serve as input of the risk response planning process where decisions are made. Complexity of projects is characterized by the emergence of phenomena that are difficult to detect and to manage using classical methods. It may disturb risk assessment, on which priorities are further established. This paper aims at using importance measure (IM) techniques in the complex PRM field. This involves modeling the complex project risk network and providing complementary analysis results based on risk IMs accounting for risk interactions. These new project risk indicators allow the manager for a more comprehensive understanding of the risks. An application to a complex engineering project is provided to illustrate this approach to assess both risks and risk interactions, to establish priorities for further decision making.