Application of neural networks in forecasting engine systems reliability

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)255-268
Journal / PublicationApplied Soft Computing Journal
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2003
Externally publishedYes


This paper presents a comparative study of the predictive performances of neural network time series models for forecasting failures and reliability in engine systems. Traditionally, failure data analysis requires specifications of parametric failure distributions and justifications of certain assumptions, which are at times difficult to validate. On the other hand, the time series modeling technique using neural networks provides a promising alternative. Neural network modeling via feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) suffers from local minima problems and long computation time. The radial basis function (RBF) neural network architecture is found to be a viable alternative due to its shorter training time. Illustrative examples using reliability testing and field data showed that the proposed model results in comparable or better predictive performance than traditional MLP model and the linear benchmark based on Box-Jenkins autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIMA) models. The effects of input window size and hidden layer nodes are further investigated. Appropriate design topologies can be determined via sensitivity analysis. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Research Area(s)

  • ARIMA models, MLP model, Neural networks, Predictive performance, RBF model, Reliability analysis, Time series forecasting