Analysis of the Spatial Pattern of Urban Expansion in African Countries Under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Scenarios

Exploring the urban spatial pattern and expansion characteristics of African countries under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) is crucial to optimizing urban development in Africa and ensuring ecological sustainability. We use land and socioeconomic panel data and the least squares dummy variable regression method to predict the urban land increment in African countries from 2030 to 2060, we use the FLUS model to simulate the urban spatial layout in 2060, and we analyze from the perspective of the relationship between population density and urban expansion. The results show that the urban space of African countries will show a significant expansion trend from 2020 to 2060, with stronger growth under the SSP1 and SSP5 scenarios and relatively weaker growth under the SSP3 scenario; the urban land expansion patterns of different countries under different SSP scenarios are significantly different, and countries with rapid urbanization and economic growth are mostly urban patch agglomeration and extended expansion, while urban patches are relatively evenly distributed; a large number of cities in Africa show specific expansion patterns, with large cities mostly showing loose expansion and small- and medium-sized cities mostly showing compact expansion; and cities in different regions such as North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa have their own expansion characteristics in terms of population density and urban form. Our research provides important data support and inspiration for promoting the rational development of African cities and enhancing regional ecological resilience. © 2025 by the authors.